Schumpeter: Reinventing Uber
熊彼特：重塑优步
An action plan for the ride-sharing firm’s next chief executive
一份行动计划，供这家拼车公司下一任CEO参考
It is said that Travis Kalanick, who resigned as Uber’s boss in June, has been reading Shakespeare’s “Henry V”. Prince Hal’s transformation, from wastrel prince to sober monarch, is doubtless one he would like to emulate. But as a guide to the ride-hailing firm’s financial dilemma, “Macbeth” is the best play. This line especially resonates: “I am in blood stepp’d in so far that, should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o’er.”
六月，特拉维斯·卡兰尼克辞去优步CEO一职。据说他一直在读莎士比亚的《亨利五世》。从浪荡王子蜕变成为冷静持重的君主——这样的哈尔亲王无疑是卡兰尼克想要效仿的对象。不过，要了解这家网约车公司的财务困境，《麦克白》这部剧才是最合适的指南。其中有这么一句台词尤其引人共鸣：“我已经两足深陷血泊之中，要是不再涉血前进，那么回头的路也是同样令人厌倦的。”
Uber has bled money for years in an attempt to become the absolute ruler of its industry. Once Mr Kalanick’s replacement is found, voices will whisper that the firm, like Macbeth himself, is in too deep to alter course. But the new boss must change Uber from a company that sacrifices anything for its ambitions, to one which has a realistic valuation and uses resources efficiently.
优步尝试成为行业内绝对的统治者，过程中已亏损多年。等到公司找到卡兰尼克的继任者之时，将会有传言称这家公司就像麦克白本人一样，已陷得太深，无法改弦更张了。但新老板必须将优步从一家为了实现抱负不惜牺牲一切的公司，转变成估值实事求是、资源利用有效的公司。
Its product is elegantly simple. Uber makes a market between drivers and passengers and takes a cut of about a fifth of the fare. The more people use its service, the better it functions, with lower waiting periods for passengers, and better use of drivers’ time. Some 55m people in 574 cities use it every month. Underlying sales were $4bn in 2016, over double what they were the year before (all figures exclude Uber’s Chinese arm, which it sold to a local rival, Didi Chuxing, last year). Uber’s main trouble is high expectations. Its supporters think it will become the next Alphabet or Facebook. At its last funding round in 2016 (it is private), investors valued it at a whopping $68bn.
优步的产品非常简洁。它在司机和乘客之间建立一个交易场所，并从车费中抽取大约五分之一的佣金。优步服务的用户越多，便能越好地发挥作用：乘客减少了等候时间，司机更好地利用了自己的时间。优步的服务遍布574个城市，大约有5500万人每月使用该服务。公司2016年的基础销售收入为40亿美元，较前一年翻了一倍有余（所有的数字均未计入优步在中国的业务。优步中国去年被当地竞争对手滴滴出行收购。）优步主要的问题是市场对它的高预期。其支持者认为该公司将成为下一个Alphabet或Facebook。2016年优步进行最后一轮融资时（优步是家私营公司），投资者将其估值推高至680亿美元。
But the next boss will have to deal with an income statement that is scarier than the Thane of Cawdor. Underlying pre-tax losses were $3bn-3.5bn last year and about $800m in the most recent quarter. Some $1bn-2bn of last year’s red ink was because of subsidies that Uber paid to drivers and passengers to draw them to its platform. At least another $1bn went on overheads and on developing driverless cars; money is also being splashed on a new food-delivery venture and a plan to build flying cars.
然而，摆在下一任老板面前的公司损益表可比那位考德的领主还可怕。去年优步的基础税前损失在30到35亿美元之间，最近一个季度大约为8亿美元。去年的赤字中，大约有10到12亿美元是为把司机及乘客吸引到自己的平台而向他们发放补贴造成的。营运费用以及开发无人驾驶汽车也耗掉至少10亿美元。公司还在新的外卖送餐项目以及打造飞行汽车的计划上砸下大把钞票。
To put its 2016 loss in perspective, that number was larger than the cumulative loss made by Silicon Valley’s least profit-conscious big company – Amazon – in 1995-2002. Measured by sales, Uber is the world’s 1,158th-biggest firm. Judged by cash losses, it ranks in the top 20. It is now eight years old, but still probably years away from being stable enough to make an initial public offering of shares. In contrast, Amazon went public at the age of three, Alphabet at six and Facebook at eight.
比较起来，优步单是2016年的亏损数字，就高过硅谷盈利意识最淡泊的大公司亚马逊1995年到2002年间的累积亏损。以销售额来衡量，优步是世界第1158“大”公司；以现金损失计，它能排进前20。优步如今已成立八年，但也许仍需好多年才能稳定到足以进行首次公开募股。相比之下，亚马逊上市是在成立的第三年，Alphabet和Facebook分别是在第六年和第八年。
Investors rationalise its valuation by assuming that in the long run it will be highly profitable, with a dominant share of a large market. In 2014 Bill Gurley, a well-known tech investor who was then an Uber director, estimated that the pool of consumer spending that it could try and capture might be over $1trn, with ride-hailing and ride-sharing replacing car ownership. Today many Silicon Valley types think that estimate is too conservative.
投资者为优步的估值寻求合理解释。他们认为长远来看公司会在一个广阔的市场中占据主要份额，从而赚取高额利润。2014年，时任优步董事的知名科技投资人比尔·格利（Bill Gurley）估计，随着叫车及拼车服务取代私家车，或许将有超过一万亿的消费支出可供优步去努力争取。而今很多硅谷人士认为这个估计太保守了。
But a discounted cashflow model gives a sense of the leap of faith that Uber’s valuation requires. After adjusting for its net cash of $5bn and for its stake in Didi, worth $6bn, you have to believe that its sales will increase tenfold by 2026. Operating margins would have to rise to 25%, from about -80% today.
不过利用现金流折现模型做一番评估，便可大致了解得有怎样的信仰才支撑得起优步的估值。剔除公司50亿美元的净现金及价值60亿美元的滴滴股份后，投资者得相信到2026年公司的销售额将增长十倍才行。营运利润则需从如今的-80%提高至25%。
That is a huge stretch. Admittedly, Amazon and Alphabet, two of history’s most successful firms, both grew their sales at least that quickly in the decade after they reached Uber’s level, and Facebook is likely to as well. But over the same periods these firms’ operating margins show a total average rise of only one percentage point. Put simply, Uber finds it desperately hard to make money. It is not clear that it breaks even reliably across the group of cities where it has been active for longest.
这是个极为艰巨的任务。当然，史上最成功的两家公司亚马逊和Alphabet在达到优步如今的水平之后的十年里，销售额均至少达到了上述增长速度，Facebook可能也会如此。但在同一时期，这些公司营运利润的增长总平均仅为一个百分点。简单地说，优步要赚钱极其困难。至于优步在业务开展时间最长的那些城市里是否确切实现了收支平衡，目前也并不清楚。
So the new chief executive will have to deliver a bleak message; that ride-hailing is locked in a vicious circle. Low prices and high subsidies lead to losses, so firms must raise capital continually, requiring them to exhibit rising valuations. To justify these they must frequently enter new cities and dream up new products. Even more speculative capital is then drawn in by the paper gains seemingly on offer. In the past year, ten of Uber’s competitors, such as Lyft in America and Grab in South-East Asia, have together raised or are raising, roughly $11bn. That will be used to finance still more price wars to win market share.
因此，新任首席执行官须传递一个灰暗惨淡的信息：网约车业务陷入了一个恶性循环。低价格和高额补贴导致亏损，因此公司必须不断融资，这就要求它们展现出日益提高的估值。为了让自己的估值站得住脚，它们就必须频繁地打入新城市、构想新产品。更多的投机资本会被看似有望获得的收益吸引进来。过去一年中，包括美国的Lyft和东南亚的Grab在内，优步的十家竞争对手公司已募得或正在募集的资本总额将近110亿美元。有了这笔钱，各家公司将会为争夺市场份额发起更多的价格战。
Uber is on course to use up its existing cash and credit lines in three years. Its next boss must break the cycle before then by cutting subsidies and talking down its valuation. It could lose market share and may need to exit scores of cities. On July 13th it said that it will merge its operations in Russia with a competitor. Similar deals need to follow. Although Uber should continue to invest in driverless cars, some of its more experimental “moon shot” projects will probably be for the chop. Its investors, including Goldman Sachs, Saudi Arabia’s government and Jay-Z, a rapper, could face paper losses. Staff paid in stock will be furious.
按目前趋势，优步将在三年内用尽现有现金和信贷额度。在此之前，下任老板必须削减补贴，压低公司估值，从而打破上述循环。这么做也许会损失市场份额，或许还需从大量城市中退出。7月13日，优步称将把公司在俄罗斯的业务与当地竞争对手合并。今后还需订立一系列类似的协议。优步应当继续投资无人驾驶汽车，但某些更具实验性的“探月”项目可能会被砍掉。包括高盛、沙特阿拉伯政府和说唱歌手Jay-Z在内的优步投资人可能将面临账面损失。以公司股权为部分薪酬的员工将会愤怒。
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