The American Economy: Full Speed A-Fed

美国经济：美联储全速前进

 

The Federal Reserve spent 2016 deferring rate rises. It might now speed them up

美联储在2016年一直推迟加息，现在有可能会加快加息的步伐

 

America’s central bank tries to be predictable. When in December 2015 it raised interest rates for the first time since 2006, nobody was much surprised. The central bank had telegraphed its intentions to a tee. Similarly, if the overwhelming consensus in financial markets is to be believed, on December 14th – almost exactly a year later – rates will rise again, to a target range of 0.5-0.75%. Donald Trump’s tweets and phone calls may upend trade, fiscal and foreign policy in a matter of minutes, but Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman, is tweaking monetary policy at only a cautious annual pace.

 

美联储试图让自己变得可被预见。2015年12月，它自2006年以来首次提高利率，没有人感到特别意外。美联储事先已经将其意图全部表露无余。同样，如果金融市场上压倒一切的共识可信的话，在近一年后的12月14日，利率将再次上调，提升至0.5%至0.75%的目标区间。特朗普的推特和电话可能在短短几分钟内就会颠覆贸易、财政和外交政策，但是美联储主席耶伦谨慎调节货币政策的步伐可是一年才有一次。

 

Yet in another sense, the Fed has confounded predictions – at least, those it made itself. A year ago the median rate-setter foresaw four rate rises in 2016. None has happened yet. This might seem like a straightforward reaction to events. At the start of the year, stock markets sagged on worries about Chinese growth. Then, in June, Britain voted to leave the European Union, sending markets spinning again for a while. But the delay also resulted from a gradual acceptance by Fed officials that low rates have become a longer-lasting feature of the economy. In September most rate-setters expected rates eventually to settle below 3%. This is down from 3.5% at the time of “lift-off” a year ago. Since June Ms Yellen has been saying that low rates are only “modestly” juicing the economy.

 

但在另一种意义上，美联储还是让预测落了空——至少是美联储自己所做的那些预测。一年前，美联储公开市场委员会过半委员预计2016年会有四次加息，但目前为止一次都还没有进行。这似乎是对一系列事件的直接反应。年初，对中国经济增长的担忧让美国股市下跌。6月，英国公投决定脱离欧盟，让市场再次波动了一段时间。但拖延加息还有一个原因，即美联储官员逐渐接受了一个现实：低利率已成为经济发展一个更长期的特征。9月，大多数委员都预计利率最终将设定在3%以下。而一年前“看涨”之时，预期还是3.5%。自6月以来，耶伦一直说低利率只是“温和地”刺激经济。

 

Now, though, the Fed is ready to move again. A look at the labour market reveals why. A year ago unemployment was already low at 5%. Since then the economy has created an average of 188,000 jobs per month. At first this helped the labour-force participation of prime-age workers, which fell worryingly after the crisis, to surge. It rose from a trough of 80.6% in September 2015 to 81.6% by October 2016, a spurt faster than any since 1985. Swelling numbers of jobseekers kept unemployment roughly steady despite robust job growth.

 

然而现在美联储准备好再次调息。劳动力市场的变化能为我们揭示个中原因。一年前，失业率已经低至5%。从那以后，美国经济平均每月创造18.8万个工作岗位。起初，这促使核心年龄工人的劳动力参与率大幅增加（金融危机之后这一比率的跌幅令人担忧）。劳动参与率从2015年9月80.6%的低点上升到2016年10月的81.6%，比1985年以来任何一次上升的势头都要强劲。尽管工作岗位数稳健增长，不断增加的求职人数仍让失业率基本维持不变。

 

In November, however, participation fell slightly. As a result, job creation is once again pushing unemployment down. It now stands at 4.6%, the lowest rate recorded since August 2007. That is below its long-run sustainable level, according to at least 13 of 16 Fed rate-setters who penned forecasts in September.

 

然而，11月份的劳动参与率略有下降。结果，职位增加再次推低了失业率，目前仅为4.6%，是自2007年8月以来录得的最低水平。美联储公开市场委员会的16位委员于9月发布了预测，其中至少13位认为这样的失业率低于其长期可持续水平。

 

Hawks argue that participation has reached its limit, so little slack remains in the labour market. Other thermometers are popping. It now takes 28 days to fill a vacancy, up from 23 days in 2006, notes Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank. Firms small and large list hiring difficulties among their top concerns. For all the fanfare over Mr Trump’s agenda to protect jobs from outsourcing, fewer workers were laid off or fired in September than in any month since data started being collected in 2000.

 

鹰派人士认为劳动参与率已经达到极限，所以劳动力市场上再没什么空间可压缩了。市场上涌现出许多其他参考数据。德意志银行的托斯腾·斯洛克（Torsten Slok）表示，现在要填补一个岗位空缺需要28天时间，2006年只需23天。公司不论大小，都将招聘困难列入其首要问题之中。特朗普大张旗鼓地宣传自己保护就业岗位、使之不因外包而流失的执政目标，9月被裁员或辞退的工人数比2000年开始收集相关数据以来的任何一个月都少。

 

Doves reckon this is mostly a mirage. Prime-age participation has climbed only a third of the way back to its pre-recession level. Even among those in work, there are still an unusually high number of part-timers who want full-time work.

 

鸽派人士认为这些多半都是幻象。虽然核心劳动力参与率攀升，但和经济衰退前水平的差距仅缩小了三分之一。即使在参与就业的人中，希望能全职工作的兼职员工数仍然异乎寻常的高。

 

The ultimate arbiter of this debate is wage and price inflation. If the economy is running hot, both should pick up. As it is, hourly wages are only about 2.5% higher than a year ago. But researchers at the San Francisco Fed have suggested that a slew of retirements by baby-boomers on fat salaries is dragging this average down. Measures purged of this problem show the median hourly pay rise running at fully 3.9%, almost as generous as in 2007.

 

最终决定双方争论胜负的是工资增长和通货膨胀。如果经济运行趋热，两者都应上升。就目前来说，平均时薪仅比一年前高出约2.5%。不过旧金山联储的研究人员指出，大批婴儿潮一代高薪人员的退休拉低了这一平均水平。剔除这个因素后的计算显示，中位数的时薪增长率高达3.9%，几乎与2007年时的增长一样。

 

As for inflation, it is not yet back at the Fed’s 2% target. But it is getting closer. Excluding food and energy, prices are 1.7% higher than a year ago, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, up from 1.4% at the end of last year. Doves console themselves that even after rates rise, monetary policy will remain unusually loose for this point in the economic cycle. That partly reflects the asymmetry of risks before the Fed. Should an some unforeseen shock rattle the economy, there will be little room to cut rates to offset it. This, as Ms Yellen often acknowledges, justifies keeping rates lower than they otherwise would be.

 

至于通胀，目前尚未回到美联储2%的目标水平，但也越来越近了。美联储首选的计算方法显示，不包括食物和能源在内的物价比一年前高了1.7%，而去年年底的升幅为1.4%。鸽派安慰自己的说法是，即使在利率上升后，货币政策在经济周期目前这个节点上仍将异常宽松，部分反映出美联储面临的风险不对称。如果一些不可预见的冲击性事件干扰美国经济，便没有什么空间来削减利率以抵消不良影响。如耶伦经常承认的那样，这让联储有理由将利率保持在较低水平。

 

Inflation risk, though, is starting to tilt upwards. Congress will probably cut taxes next year. Higher rates may be needed to stop any fiscal stimulus becoming inflationary. Since the election, markets’ inflation expectations have continued on an upward trend that began in September. But Treasury-bond yields, which in large part reflect traders’ expectations for Fed policy, have risen dramatically. Rising oil prices and the prospect of Mr Trump’s imposing import tariffs also play a role. Both would crimp growth, but would do so in part by pushing prices up.

 

然而，通货膨胀的风险开始上升，国会可能在明年减税，可能需要更高的利率来避免任何财政刺激导致通货膨胀。市场的通胀预期从9月开始上升，美国大选以来，继续呈上升趋势。但国债收益率却大幅上升，这一数字在很大程度上反映了交易员对美联储政策的预期。油价上涨和特朗普可能征收进口关税的前景也起了一定作用，两者都会限制增长，但部分是通过推高物价起到抑制作用。

 

Surging bond yields and a stronger dollar are already squeezing the economy. So carefully has Ms Yellen managed expectations that a rate rise now will not exacerbate those trends. What would do so would be any hint that the Fed may bring subsequent rate rises forward, not push them back. For the first time in years, that does not look out of the question.

 

债券收益率大幅上扬和美元走强已经挤压了经济。耶伦一直非常谨慎地管理着预期，即使现在加息也不会加剧这些趋势。而有可能会加剧这些趋势的是美联储会把后续加息提前而非推后的任何暗示。多年来，这种情况第一次看起来并非全无可能。

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