The President and Business: America’s New Business Model

总统与商业：美国的新商业模式

 

Donald Trump is rewriting the rules that govern relations between the president and firms. Not for the better

特朗普正在改写支配总统和公司之间的关系准则——但却不是变得更好

 

His inauguration is still six weeks away but Donald Trump has already sent shock waves through American business. Chief executives – and their companies’ shareholders – are giddy at the president-elect’s promises to slash burdensome regulation, cut taxes and boost the economy with infrastructure spending. Blue-collar workers are cock-a-hoop at his willingness to bully firms into saving their jobs.

 

距离就职尚有六周，但特朗普冲击波已经传遍了整个美国商界。首席执行官们及其公司股东被这位当选总统的承诺搞得头晕目眩——他说要大幅减少繁重的监管，要减税，还要通过增加基础设施支出促进经济。蓝领工人们则志得意满，因为特朗普愿意威逼公司保住他们的饭碗。

 

In the past few weeks, Mr Trump has lambasted Apple for not producing more bits of its iPhone in America; harangued Ford about plans to move production of its Lincoln sports-utility vehicles; and lashed out at Boeing, not long after the firm’s chief executive had mused publicly about the risks of a protectionist trade policy. Most dramatically, Mr Trump bribed and cajoled Carrier, a maker of air-conditioning units in Indiana, to change its plans and keep 800 jobs in the state rather than move them to Mexico. One poll suggests that six out of ten Americans view Mr Trump more favourably after the Carrier deal. This muscularity is proving popular.

 

过去几周里，特朗普已痛斥了苹果没在美国本土生产更多的iPhone部件；喋喋不休地训斥福特搬迁林肯SUV工厂的计划；在波音首席执行官公开对贸易保护主义政策的风险表示忧虑之后不久，他又炮轰了波音。最戏剧化的是，特朗普收买利诱了空调设备生产商开利（Carrier），迫使它改变计划，将800个工作岗位留在印第安纳州而不是转移到墨西哥。一项民意调查显示，十分之六的美国人在这项交易后对特朗普的看法更加正面了。这种强悍做法正受到欢迎。

 

Popular but problematic. The emerging Trump strategy towards business has some promising elements, but others that are deeply worrying. The promise lies in Mr Trump’s enthusiasm for corporate-tax reform, his embrace of infrastructure investment and in some parts of his deregulatory agenda. The dangers stem, first, from the muddled mercantilism that lies behind his attitude to business, and, second, in the tactics – buying off and attacking individual companies – that he uses to achieve his goals. American capitalism has flourished thanks to the predictable application of rules. If, at the margin, that rules-based system is superseded by an ad hoc approach in which businessmen must take heed and pay homage to the whim of King Donald, the long-term damage to America’s economy will be grave.

 

虽受人欢迎却也问题多多。特朗普对商界的策略逐渐显现，有些因素充满希望，其他的则令人深感忧虑。希望在于特朗普对公司税改革的热情、积极推动基础设施投资，以及放松监管的某些主张。而危险则源自：第一，导致他对商界采取这种态度的混乱的重商主义；第二，他为了达到目的所采取的手段，即收买或攻击某些公司。美国资本主义的繁荣得益于规则贯彻的可预见性。从边际角度看来，如果这个基于规则的体系被代之以即兴的解决方式，商人必须小心听命于特朗普的突发奇想，那么对美国经济的长期损害将非常严重。

 

Start with the confusions in Mr Trump’s philosophy. The president-elect believes that America’s workers are harmed when firms move production to cheaper locations offshore. That is why he wants to impose a 35% tariff on the products of any company that moves its production abroad. Such tariffs would be hugely disruptive. They would make goods more expensive for American consumers. By preventing American firms from maximising their efficiency using complex supply chains, they would reduce their competitiveness, deter new investment and, eventually, hurt workers’ wages across the economy. They would also encourage a tit-for-tat response.

 

我们先来看特朗普哲学的混乱之处。这位当选总统相信，如果企业将生产搬到海外更便宜的地方，美国的工人会受到损害。因此他想要对任何把生产迁到国外的公司征收35%的产品关税。如此高的关税会造成巨大的破坏。这会让美国消费者购买的产品变得更加昂贵。高关税让美国公司无法利用复杂的供应链使效率最大化，从而降低了它们的竞争力，抑制了新的投资，并且最终伤及整个经济领域中工人的工资。高关税还会激起以牙还牙的对策。

 

Precisely because tariffs would be so costly, many businessmen discount Mr Trump’s protectionism as mere rhetoric. Plenty of them see the focus on individual firms as a politically canny (and thus sensible) substitute. If Mr Trump can convince American workers that he is on their side using only a barrage of tweets and a few back-room deals like the one with Carrier, there may be no need to resort to tariffs. To profit from a business-friendly bonanza, the logic goes, clever executives simply have to make sure they stay in the president’s good books.

 

正是因为高关税的代价如此高昂，很多商界人士低估了特朗普的贸易保护主义，认为他只是说说而已。不少人认为针对某些公司的措施是一种政治上精明（因而明智）的替代之举。如果特朗普只需接二连三地发推特、和开利之类的公司达成一些幕后交易，便能让美国工人确信他跟他们是一条心，那可能就无需借助关税了。于是他们认为，要从对商业友好的大机遇中获利，聪明的高管就得确保自己待在总统的“好人名单”上。

 

That looks like wishful thinking. Mr Trump’s mercantilism is long-held and could prove fierce, particularly if the strong dollar pushes America’s trade deficit higher. Congress would have only limited powers to restrain the president’s urge to impose tariffs. More important, even if rash protectionism is avoided, a strategy based on bribing and bullying individual companies will itself be a problem.

 

这看来只是一厢情愿。特朗普的重商主义思想根深蒂固，而且最终可能会非常狂热，如果强势美元推高美国贸易赤字的话将尤为如此。国会仅有有限的权力来限制总统征收关税。更为重要的是，即使轻率的贸易保护主义得以避免，收买和威逼个别公司的策略本身也还是一个问题。

 

Mr Trump is not the first American politician to cajole firms. For all its reputation as the bastion of rule-based capitalism, America has a long history of ad hoc political interventions in business. States routinely offer companies subsidies of the sort that Indiana gave to Carrier. From John Kennedy, who publicly shamed steel firms in the 1960s, to Barack Obama, who bailed out car companies in 2009, all presidents have meddled in markets.

 

特朗普并不是第一个利诱公司的美国政客。尽管人人皆知美国是基于规则的资本主义桥头堡，但这个国家在对商业的临时政治干预上却历史悠久。各州惯于向企业提供补贴，就像亚利桑那州给予开利的那样。从肯尼迪（在上世纪60年代公开羞辱钢铁公司）到奥巴马（在2009年救助汽车企业），所有总统都曾插手市场。

 

And Mr Trump’s actions so far are not exceptional relative to his predecessors or by international standards. Britain’s prime minister recently made undisclosed promises to Nissan, a Japanese carmaker, to persuade the firm to stay in Britain despite Brexit. The French government is notorious for brow-beating individual firms to keep jobs in France. The most egregious crony corporatists, from Russia to Venezuela, dish out favours to acolytes and punishments to opponents on a scale that would bring blushes even in Trump Tower.

 

而且相比他的前任们或是国际标准，特朗普迄今的做法并不算出格。英国首相近期向日本汽车公司尼桑秘密承诺，以劝说该公司即便在英国脱欧后仍留在该国。法国政府因威吓一些公司把职位留在法国国内而声名狼藉。从俄罗斯到委内瑞拉，那些裙带社团主义最为严重的国家党同伐异的规模之大，即使特朗普大厦里的人也会为之脸红。

 

Nonetheless, Mr Trump’s approach is worrying. Unlike the Depression, when Hoover and then Roosevelt got companies to act in what they (often wrongly) saw as the national interest; or 2009, when Mr Obama corralled the banks and bailed out Detroit, America today is not in crisis. Mr Trump’s meddling is thus likely to be the new normal. Worse, his penchant for unpredictable and often vindictive bullying is likely to be more corrosive than the handouts most politicians favour.

 

尽管如此，特朗普的手段仍然令人担忧。现在不同于大萧条时期，当时胡佛和罗斯福号令企业依照他们所认定（经常是错的）的国家利益行动；也不像2009年，当时奥巴马保护了银行并救助了底特律。如今美国并没有陷入危机，因此特朗普的干预可能会成为一种新常态。更糟糕的是，特朗普行事莫测的倾向且常有报复性的霸道行径，可能比大多数政客偏好的施恩更具腐蚀性。

 

If this is the tone of the Trump presidency, prudent businesses will make it their priority to curry favour with the president and avoid actions that might irk him. Signs of this are already evident in the enthusiasm with which top CEOs – many of them critics of Mr Trump during the campaign – have rushed to join his new advisory board. Helping the Trump Organisation or the Trump family might not go amiss either. The role of lobbyists will grow – an irony given that Mr Trump promised to drain the Washington swamp of special interests.

 

如果这成为特朗普任期内的基调，精明的企业将会把向总统献媚作为头等大事，并避免可能令其不悦的行为。这种迹象已经很明显——大公司的CEO正竞相加入特朗普新设的顾问委员会，而他们中很多人在竞选时都对他持批评态度。帮助特朗普集团或特朗普家族可能也不会错。说客的作用还将扩大——讽刺的是，特朗普曾允诺要在华盛顿铲除特殊利益。

 

The costs from this shift may be imperceptible at first, exceeded by the boon from economic stimulus and regulatory reform. And as president of the world’s largest economy, Mr Trump will be able to ride roughshod over firms for longer with impunity than politicians in smaller places ever could. But over time the damage will accumulate: misallocated capital, lower competitiveness and reduced faith in America’s institutions. Those who will suffer most are the very workers Mr Trump is promising to help. That is why, if he really wants to make America great again, Mr Trump should lay off the protectionism and steer clear of the bullying right now.

 

这一变化的代价最初可能不易察觉，会被经济刺激和监管改革带来的好处所掩盖。而作为世界最大经济体的总统，相比那些较小国家政客过去的所作所为，特朗普将能在更长时间里无所顾忌地欺凌企业。然而损害会逐渐积累：资本错配、竞争力下降，以及对美国体制的信心削弱。受害最深的将正是那些特朗普许诺要帮助的工人。所以说，如果他真的想让美国再次伟大，现在就应抛弃保护主义，避免再欺凌企业。

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