The Unbalanced Global Economy: American Shopper

不平衡的全球经济：美国购物者

The world is once again relying too much on American consumers to power growth

全世界又一次太过依赖美国消费者促进增长

A global economy running on a single engine is better than one that needs jump leads. The American economy is motoring again, to the relief of exporters from Hamburg to Hangzhou. Firms added more than 1m net new jobs in the past three months, the best showing since 1997.Buoyed up by cheap petrol, Americans are spending; in January consumer sentiment jumped to its highest in more than a decade. The IMF reckons that American growth will hit 3.6% in 2015, faster than the world economy as a whole. All this is good. But growing dependence on the American economy – and on consumers in particular – has unwelcome echoes.

全球经济由单引擎驱动好过需要外部刺激。美国经济正再次启动，从汉堡到杭州的出口商都松了一口气。过去三个月，美国公司净增一百多万个新的就业岗位，是1997年以来的最佳表现。美国人受低油价的鼓舞开始消费；1月消费者信心指数跃至十多年来最高。IMF预测2015年美国的增长将达到3.6%，快于世界整体经济增长。这些都是好消息。不过全球经济增长越来越依赖美国经济，尤其是美国的消费者，令人担忧。

A decade ago American consumers borrowed heavily and recklessly. They filled their ever-larger houses with goods from China; they fuelled gas-guzzling cars with imported oil. Big exporters recycled their earnings back to America, pushing down interest rates which in turn helped to feed further borrowing. Europe was not that different. There, frugal Germans financed debt binges around the euro area’s periphery. After the financial crisis, the hope was of an end to these imbalances. Debt-addicted Americans and Spaniards would chip away at their obligations; thrifty German and Chinese consumers would start to enjoy life for once. At first, this seemed to be happening. America’s trade deficit, which was about 6% of GDP in 2006, had more than halved by 2009.

十年前美国消费者毫无节制地大举贷款。他们房子越住越大，屋里填满中国进口的商品；汽车都是油老虎，吃的是进口油。大型出口商把赚的钱拿回国内投资，压低了利率，从而进一步促进了信贷。欧洲也差不多。在那里，节俭的德国人资助了欧元区边缘国家的债务狂欢。金融危机之后，人们希望这些不平衡都能终结。患上“债瘾”的美国人和西班牙人会逐步消化掉他们的债务；勤俭的德国和中国消费者至少这次能开始享受生活。起初形势好像是这么发展。美国的贸易逆差2006年约为GDP的6%，到2009年减少了一半多。

But now the world is slipping back into some nasty habits. Hair grows faster than the euro zone, and what growth there is depends heavily on exports. The countries of the single currency are running a current-account surplus of about 2.6% of GDP, thanks largely to exports to America. At 7.4% of GDP, Germany’s trade surplus is as large as it has ever been. China’s growth, meanwhile, is slowing – and once again relying heavily on spending elsewhere. It notched up its own record trade surplus in January. China’s exports have actually begun to drop, but imports are down by more. And over the past year the renminbi, which rose by more than 10% against the dollar in 2010-13, has begun slipping again, to the annoyance of American politicians.

但是现在世界重又堕入一些陋习中。头发长得都比欧元区经济发展快，而且那里仅有的增长很大程度上依靠出口。这些使用单一货币的国家国际收支经常项目顺差占GDP约为2.6%，主要来自向美国的出口。德国的贸易顺差为GDP的7.4%，为历史最高。与此同时，中国的增长正在减缓，而且同样是很大程度上依赖于他国的消费。一月中国的贸易顺差创历史新高。中国的出口实际上已开始下跌，但进口下降得更多。2010年到2013年人民币对美元升值超过10%，但过去一年也开始走低，让美国政治家烦恼不已。

America’s economy is warping as a result. Consumption’s contribution to growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 was the largest since 2006. The trade deficit is widening. Strip out oil, and America’s trade deficit grew to more than 3% of GDP in 2014, and is approaching its pre-recession peak of about 4%. The world’s reliance on America is likely to deepen. Germans are more interested in shipping savings abroad than investing at home. Households and firms in Europe’s periphery are overburdened with debt, workers’ wages squeezed and banks in no mood to lend. Like Germany, Europe as a whole is relying on exports. China is rebalancing, but not fast enough: services have yet to account for more than half of annual Chinese output.

结果美国的经济被扭曲了。2014年第四季度消费对增长的贡献为2006年以来最高。贸易逆差在扩大。除去石油，2014年美国的贸易逆差已增至超过GDP的3%，正接近经济衰退前约4%的峰值。世界对美国的依赖可能会加深。比起投资国内，德国人对将本国储蓄投往国外更有兴趣。欧洲边缘国家的家庭和公司都不堪重债，工资紧缩，银行无心放款。像德国一样，欧洲整体都依赖出口。中国正在调整，但步伐还不够快：服务业占中国年产出的比重还未超过一半。

Diverging monetary policies will exacerbate the problem. The prospect of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank has sent the euro tumbling against the greenback, further helping European exporters. Central banks in Tokyo, Beijing and Mumbai are all easing. The Federal Reserve appears ready to begin raising interest rates this summer. That is sending yield-hungry capital to America, and the dollar skyward.

各种不同的货币政策会让问题恶化。市场对欧洲央行量化宽松的预期已导致欧元对美钞大跌，进一步促进欧洲出口。东京、北京和孟买的央行都推出货币宽松政策。美联储似乎准备好今夏开始加息。这会把渴望收益的资本吸引到美国，促使美元快速上扬。

Two dangers loom. The short-term worry is that weak exports, a rising dollar and a slowdown in energy investment (because of falling oil prices) will stifle the American expansion. Rather than pull others along, America will be dragged down by their weakness. That is why the Fed should be none too eager to raise interest rates. With inflation below target it has no need to rush to tighten.

两种危险隐约可见。短期忧虑是出口疲软、美元升值和油价下跌引起的能源投资减少会抑制美国的扩张。美国无法拉动其他国家一起增长，而是会被他国的疲软拖下水。因此美联储不应该急着加息。通货膨胀还低于目标值，美国无须急于紧缩。

The longer-term fear is that growing imbalances will repeat the financial cycle of the 2000s, in which exporters to America once again finance reckless consumer borrowing. The ratio of Americans’ debt to income has fallen from a pre-crisis high of more than 120% to around 100%, but consumers still have too much incentive to load up on debt. Politicians would do well to get rid of subsidies like tax relief on mortgage interest. But the burden to act does not lie just on America. Leaders from Brussels to Beijing should not allow falling currencies to become a substitute for structural reform, or for efforts to boost spending at home. A strong American economy is a boon to the world. It should not be taken for granted.

长期担忧是不断加剧的不均衡将重蹈本世纪初金融周期的覆辙，出口到美国的商人再次为毫无节制的消费者借贷提供资金。美国人的负债与收入比已经从经济危机前的高达120%多降至约100%，但是消费者利用负债杠杆的动力仍然太强烈。政治家们最好将住房按揭利息抵税之类的补贴取消。但是要采取行动化解压力不该只是美国一肩挑。从布鲁塞尔到北京，各国领导人都不应让货币贬值成为结构化改革的某种替代，或是用来刺激国内消费。强健的美国经济是全世界的福音，但不应想当然尔。

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