Schumpeter: Older Consumers Will Reshape the Business Landscape

熊彼特：老年消费者将会重塑商业生态

In 1965 Diana Vreeland, the editor-in-chief of Vogue, coined a phrase “youth-quake” to describe how baby-boomers were shaking up popular culture. Today the developed world is in the early stages of a “grey-quake”. Those over 60 constitute the fastest-growing group in the populations of rich countries, with their number set to increase by more than a third by 2030, from 164m to 222m. Older consumers are also the richest thanks to house-price inflation and generous pensions. The over-60s currently spend some $4 trillion a year and that number will only grow.

1965年，《Vogue》杂志主编戴安娜·弗里兰（Diana Vreeland）创造了一个新词“青年大骚动”（youth-quake），来形容婴儿潮一代对流行文化带来的的震荡。如今，发达世界已经迈入“银色冲击”（grey-quake）的初期。富裕国家中60岁以上人口是人数增长最快的群体，到2030年将从1.64亿增至2.22亿，增幅超过三分之一。得益于房价上涨和丰厚的退休金，老年消费者同时也是人口中最富裕的人群。60岁以上的消费者目前年消费额约为4万亿美元，而且这一数字在未来会只升不降。

Yet companies have been relatively slow to focus on this expanding market – certainly slower than they were to attend to the youth-quake. The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) calculates that less than 15% of firms have developed a business strategy focused on the elderly. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation to The Economist, found that only 31% of firms it polled did take into account increased longevity when making plans for sales and marketing.

然而企业在面对这个不断扩大的市场时，反应速度却相对较慢，至少要慢于它们对“青年大骚动”的反应。根据波士顿咨询公司（BCG）的计算，只有不到15%的公司针对老年消费群体制定了经营策略。《经济学人》杂志的姊妹机构经济学人智库发现，在其调查的公司中，只有31%在制定销售和营销策略的时候会考虑到人均寿命的延长。

One reason for this tardiness is that young people dominate marketing departments and think that the best place for the old is out of sight and mind. Germaine Greer, a feminist, speaks for her generation, as usual, when she says that “just because I’m over 60 nobody wants to sell to me.” A study by fast.Map, a marketer, and Involve Millennium, a consultant, found 68% of British 65-74-year-olds “don’t relate” to advertising that they see on television.

这种反应迟缓的原因之一是年轻人在企业营销部门占主导，认为老年人最好位置的就是“眼不见，心不烦”。女权主义先驱杰梅茵·格里尔（Germaine Greer） 一如既往地为她这一代人发声：“就因为我超过了60岁，没有人想卖东西给我了。”由市场营销公司fast.Map和咨询公司Involve Millennium共同完成的研究显示，英国65至74岁的人群中有68%认为他们在电视上看到的广告与他们“没有关系”。

The surest way of alienating older consumers is to treat them as old. When Procter & Gamble, a consumer-goods company, repackaged some of its dental products as “selected for aged fifty-plus consumers”, it saw sales plunge. Bridgestone blundered by promoting a new line of golf cubs as one for pensioners, producing poor sales.

有一种方式一定会赶走年长消费者，那就是把他们当做老人来对待。消费品公司宝洁曾把旗下一些护齿产品重新包装成“专为50岁以上消费者打造”，其后销量大跌。普利司通也犯过错，它曾专为退休人士推出一款高尔夫球杆，同样销路不佳。

Some firms are trying to understand older people better. Kimberley-Clark, a maker of consumer products, has built a mock-up of what a senior-friendly shop might look like in the future. Ford has created a “third-age suit” for car designers to wear to help them understand the needs of older people: the suit thickens the waist, stiffens the joints and makes movement more cumbersome. Thick gloves reduce the sense of touch and yellow-tinted goggles simulate eye cataracts. BCG research on older people suggests they are less eager to acquire material possessions than preceding generations and much keener to acquire experience, particularly through travel and study.

有些公司正在试图加深对老年人的了解。 消费品制造商金佰利公司（Kimberley-Clark）已经建造了一个模拟商店，展示未来可以怎样更好地为老年人服务。福特公司为汽车设计师专门打造了一款“老年服”，穿上可以帮助他们更好地了解老年人的需求：这款服装会在腰围处加厚，将关节处变硬，让行动不便。厚厚的手套会降低触觉敏感度，黄色护目镜可以模拟白内障的视觉效果。波士顿咨询公司对年长者的研究显示，比起他们的先辈，他们对追逐物质财产的热情不是那么高，而更热衷于获得体验，尤其是通过旅游和学习。

Understanding is giving birth to new products and business models. NTT DoCoMo not only produced a phone with large keys and a big display screen. It also redesigned it marketing, promoting the new phones during bus tours for pensioners and providing classes in shops to explain the ins-and-outs of apps. Electronics makers are producing devices that are designed specifically for old people: for example, Independa manufactures a monitor that sends an alert if something untoward happens, making it easier for the frail elderly to stay in their own homes (“age in place”) rather than move to nursing homes.

通过了解老年人，催生了很多新产品和商业模式。NTT DoCoMo（日本最大的移动通信运营商）不仅设计了一款按键和显示屏都很大的手机，还重新设计了营销模式，改为在退休者乘大巴旅行的时候做推广，并在店内开设课程，教授如何在手机上安装及卸载应用。电子产品制造商们也在生产专门为老年人设计的设备：比如，Independa（美国远程医疗服务平台开发商）打造了一个监视器，一旦发生任何事故都会发出警报，更方便体弱的老年人留在家中（“居家养老”），而不必搬去养老院。

Companies are also mastering the art of discretion – addressing older people, but not too explicitly. Retailers are surreptitiously lowering shelves and putting in carpets to make it harder to slip. Package-goods firms are printing larger typefaces and using more white space. Kimberley-Clark has overhauled its Depend brand of adult nappies to make them more like regular underwear. Sabi, a design company, now sells walking canes in bright colours. Car firms don’t make a song and dance about the fact that old people with stiff necks and fading vision will benefit disproportionately from self-parking cars.

各公司也正在掌握周到的艺术——解决老年人的问题，但要行事低调。零售商们悄悄地就将货架高度降低，铺设地毯防止滑倒。包装商品公司将包装袋印刷字体放大，加入了更多空白。金佰利彻底改变了旗下得伴（Depend）成人纸尿裤的设计，看起来更像一般的内裤。设计公司Sabi现在销售的手杖全都是五颜六色的。老年人颈部僵硬，视力退化，自动泊车功能可以给他们带来极大的方便，但汽车公司却不会大张旗鼓地进行宣传。

Yet this is only the early stages of a revolution. Baby-boomers have spent their lives making noise and demanding attention. They are not going to stop now. They will be the biggest and richest group of pensioners in history. They will also be the longest lived: many will spend more time in retirement than they did working. The baby-boomers have changed everything they have touched since their teenage years, leaving behind them a trail of inventions, from pop culture to two-career families. Retirement is next on the list.

然而这一切都只是革命的初期阶段。婴儿潮一代一生都不甘沉默，不断寻求关注，现在也不会改变。他们将会成为历史上人数最多、最富有的退休人群，也会是最长寿的：很多人退休生活的年头将会超过他们工作的时间。婴儿潮一代从青少年时期开始就改变了他们所接触的一切，从流行文化到双职工家庭，他们一路走来，开创了各种新事物，接着就轮到退休这件事了。

英文、中文版本下载：http://www.yingyushijie.com/shop/source/detail/id/465.html