The Internet of Things: Connected Homes Will Take Longer to Materialise than Expected

物联网：实现互联家居所需时间将比预期要长

 

The fanfare has gone on for years. Analysts have repeatedly predicted that the “internet of things”, which adds sensors and internet capability to everyday physical objects, could transform the lives of individuals as dramatically as the spread of the mobile internet. Providers have focused on the home, touting products such as coffee pots that turn on when the alarm clock rings, lighting and blinds that adjust to the time of day, and fridges that send an alert when the milk runs out. But so far consumers have been largely resistant to making their homes “smart”.

 

这场喧嚣已经持续了多年。分析师曾多次预测，给日常物品加上传感器和互联网功能的“物联网”将像手机上网的普及一样彻底改变人们的生活。供应商们把目光投向顾客家中，兜售的产品包括闹钟响起时自动开启的咖啡壶，按照一天中的时间自动调节的灯光和百叶窗，还有牛奶喝完时发送提醒的冰箱。不过到目前为止，消费者对于把自己的家变得“智能”大体上表现得很抗拒。

 

That’s not for want of trying by tech firms, which have poured cash into their efforts to connect everyday objects to the internet. In 2014 Google made the biggest statement of intent so far, spending $3.2 billion to acquire Nest, a smart thermostat-maker, and $550m to buy Dropcam, which makes home-security cameras. Nest absorbed Dropcam; it is now one of the best-known smart-home brands. But it is also a warning about how long it will take for such gadgets to enter the mainstream.

 

这并非由于高科技公司没有努力。它们倾注了大量的现金，努力把日常物品连接到互联网。2014年，谷歌给出了迄今最大金额的意向声明，出价32亿美元收购智能温控器厂商Nest，同时出价5.5亿美元收购家庭安保摄像头厂商Dropcam。Nest吸收了Dropcam，如今已成为最知名的智能家居品牌之一。然而，这也警示我们，这种小电器要进入主流需要花多长的时间。

 

Nest has undoubtedly disappointed Google. It sold just 1.3m smart thermostats in 2015, and only 2.5m in total over the past few years, according to Strategy Analytics, a research firm. For a couple of years the firm has mainly tweaked existing products rather than introducing new ones. That may explain why Tony Fadell, Nest’s founder and boss, stepped down on June 3rd to take an advisory role at Google’s parent company, Alphabet. Mr Fadell, a former executive at Apple and designer of the iPod, failed to bring his magic touch to the smart home.

 

Nest无疑让谷歌失望了。根据研究公司Strategy Analytics的报告，Nest在2015年仅售出130万个智能温控器，在过去几年中的累计销售量也只有250万个。几年来，公司主要在对现有产品做调整，而没有推出新产品。这也许可以解释为什么Nest的创始人和老板托尼·法戴（Tony Fadell）在6月3日下台，改在谷歌的母公司Alphabet担任顾问。法戴尔曾在苹果公司任职并设计了iPod，但却没能把他的魔力带给智能家居。

 

Nest’s problems are symptomatic. Only 6% of American households have a smart-home device, including internet-connected appliances, home-monitoring systems, speakers or lighting, according to Frank Gillett of Forrester, a research firm. Breakneck growth is not expected; by 2021 the number will be just over 15%. Too few consumers are convinced that the internet has a role to play in every corner of their lives. A survey conducted in Britain by PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consulting firm, found that 72% of people have no plans to adopt smart-home technology in the next two to five years and that they are unwilling to pay for it. Last year consumers globally spent around $60 billion on hardware and services for the smart home, a fraction of the total outlay on domestic gadgets.

 

Nest的问题只是表象。研究公司Forrester的弗兰克·吉列特（Frank Gillett）称，仅有6%的美国家庭拥有智能家居设备，包括连接互联网的电器、家庭监控系统、扬声器或照明设备。这一比例的增长预计不会太快，到2021年也就将刚刚超过15%。相信互联网应该在生活中无处不在的消费者太少了。普华永道咨询公司在英国进行的一项调查发现，72%的人并没有在未来两到五年内采用智能家居技术的打算，而且他们不愿意为之付钱。去年，全球消费者在智能家居的硬件和服务上总共花费了600亿美元，只占到家居用品总开支的一小部分。

 

There are several reasons for muted enthusiasm. Businesses have an incentive to embrace the internet of things: there are cost savings to be had from embedding sensors in equipment and factories, analysing the data thus produced and improving efficiency. A lot of smart devices for the home, in contrast, remain “fun but not essential”, says Adam Segar of Canary, a startup that makes cameras that lets people monitor what is happening in their house.

 

消费者热情不高有几个原因。企业有动力去拥抱物联网——通过在设备和工厂嵌入传感器，分析由此产生的数据并提高效率可以节约开支。相比之下，很多家用智能设备仍然只是“好玩但并非必需”，Canary公司的亚当·塞加（Adam Segar）说道。Canary是一家创业公司，生产能让人们监视家里发生了什么的摄像机。

 

Many smart gadgets are still too expensive. One of Samsung’s smart fridges, with cameras within that check for rotting food and enable consumers to see what they are short of while shopping (through an app on their phone), sells for a cool $5,000. People who can afford that probably don’t do their own shopping. Appliances such as fridges are also ones that households replace infrequently: that slows the take-up of new devices.

 

许多智能工具仍然过于昂贵。三星有一款智能冰箱内置了摄像头，可以检查腐烂的食品，并让消费者在购物时看到自己缺了什么（通过手机上的应用）。这款冰箱售价高达 5,000美元，能买得起的人大概也用不着自己去购物了。而且冰箱这种家用电器也不是大家会经常更换的，这延缓了新产品被接受的步伐。

 

The technology is not perfect yet, either. The smartphone, the link between the customer and smart-home device, has raised consumers’ expectations, explains Jamie Siminoff, the boss of Ring, a startup that makes a doorbell that can be answered remotely. Smartphones have trained users to expect a level of quality and seamless ease of use that smart-home devices struggle to replicate. And a lack of standardisation means that gadgets from different firms cannot communicate with each other.

 

而且技术尚不完善。智能手机——消费者与智能家居设备之间的桥梁提高了消费者的期望，生产远程应答门铃的创业公司Ring的老板杰米·斯密诺夫（Jamie Siminoff）说道。智能手机已经让用户习惯于期待较好的质量且使用顺畅便捷，而智能家居设备很难达到这种水平。缺乏标准化意味着来自不同公司设备之间无法互相通信。

 

There are exceptions. Devices that are easy to install and offer obvious benefits are gaining in popularity, such as motion sensors that send alerts when windows and doors are opened and cameras to monitor activity. Some devices, such as smart smoke detectors, are in homes because insurance companies offer financial incentives for using them. The smart-home sector is vibrant with startups and big firms betting that the hesitancy is temporary. But consumer apathy has forced firms to rethink how they might woo customers.

 

然而也有例外。易于安装且能带来明显好处的设备越来越受欢迎，比如在门窗被打开时发送警报的运动传感器和监控活动的摄像头。智能烟雾探测器等设备之所以能够走入家庭，是因为保险公司用金钱鼓励大家使用它们。智能家居行业充满活力，创业公司和大公司都押注消费者的犹豫是暂时的。但是，消费者的冷淡已经迫使企业重新思考该如何吸引客户。

 

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Amazon, which failed miserably in its ambition to develop a smartphone, is showing the way. Amazon Echo is a smart speaker that can recognise and respond to voice commands. It shares information about the weather and sports scores, plays music and turns lights on and off. The device, which costs around $180, is not yet a big seller. Amazon does not release sales figures, but Strategy Analytics estimates that fewer than 1m Echos have been sold since it was released in November 2014. Yet the Echo is the talk of Silicon Valley.

 

或许最令人惊讶的是，在开发智能手机方面雄心勃勃却一败涂地的亚马逊给大家指出了一条路。亚马逊Echo是一台能够识别和响应语音命令的智能扬声器。它可以分享天气和赛事比分信息，播放音乐并控制照明开关。这个装置售价约180美元，目前卖得还不算太好。亚马逊没有公布销售数字，但Strategy Analytics估计，自2014年11月发布以来，Echo的销售量不到100万台。然而，Echo已经是硅谷的谈资了。

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