Consumers: The Wild, Wild East

消费者：狂野东部

 

A booming middle class is creating the world’s most dynamic consumer market

中产阶级的兴起正在造就世界上最具活力的消费市场

 

More than five centuries ago Christopher Columbus scrawled in his copy of Marco Polo’s “Travels” that the Middle Kingdom would bring mercacciones innumeras (an immeasurable amount of commerce). Columbus never reached that promised land. China has continued to disappoint foreign businessmen ever since, not least because many ordinary Chinese people have been too poor to buy anything.

 

在五个多世纪之前，哥伦布在他阅读的那本《马可波罗行纪》中潦草地写道，中土之国将带来无尽商机。哥伦布从未达到这片乐土。从那时起，中国一直令外国商人倍感失望，主要是因为很多普通中国人太穷，啥也买不起。

 

That is changing as the country’s middle class is growing explosively. In 2010 mainstream consumers – those with enough money to buy cars, fridges and phones but not Rolls-Royces – made up less than a tenth of urban households. In a new forecast, McKinsey predicts that by 2020 they will make up well over half. BCG reckons that urban private consumption will rise from $3.2 trillion today to $5.6 trillion in 2020.

 

随着中国中产阶级的爆发性增长，这种局面正在改变。2010年，主流消费者在城市家庭中不足十分之一，这些消费者能买得起手机、冰箱，及汽车——当然不是劳斯莱斯。在新的预测中，麦肯锡认为到2020年，他们将占到一半以上。波士顿咨询（BCG）认为，城市私人消费将从如今的3.2万亿美元提升到2020年的5.6万亿美元。

 

Apple expects China soon to become a bigger market for its products than America. In the quarter ending in June, its sales in greater China were 112% up on the same period a year earlier. Six of its ten busiest stores across the globe are in China. At the height of the recent turmoil in the Chinese stockmarkets Apple’s boss, Tim Cook, reassured investors that “I continue to believe China represents an unprecedented opportunity over the long term.” Apple’s shares bounced back.

 

苹果公司预期中国很快会成为比美国更大的苹果产品消费市场。在截至6月的第二季度，它在大中华区的销售额比去年同期增长了112%。苹果全球最繁忙的十家专卖店有六家在中国。在近期中国股市动荡最剧烈之时，苹果的老板蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）安抚投资者说：“我仍然相信，从长期看，中国有着前所未有的机会。”苹果的股价应声反弹。

 

Where should intrepid marketers go to capitalise on these riches? The wealthy east coast is now widely believed to be saturated, which suggests that firms should head inland. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister firm of this newspaper, recently pinpointed the top emerging cities, based on forecasts for things like long-term growth in population and disposable income. It found that a few inland cities like Chongqing and Chengdu are indeed attractive, but many excellent prospects remain in the east. Obscure but booming cities within reasonable distance of the coast, like Suqian and Xuzhou, are likely to do well, and lucrative niches remain even in well-established magnets such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

 

英勇无畏的生意人应该在哪些地方的富人中掘金？普遍的看法是，富庶的东部沿海地区已经饱和，因此企业应该进军内地。最近，根据对人口和可支配收入长期增长等因素的预测，本刊的姊妹公司经济学人智库（EIU）列出了最重要的新兴城市。它发现，像重庆和成都这样的内陆城市确实极具吸引力，但东部地区仍然大有可为。与沿海地区距离合理、不太出名却蓬勃发展的城市，如宿迁和徐州，很有可能表现不俗。甚至是在北上广深这样发展已久的一线城市内也仍然存在有利可图的利基市场。

 

As the middle class expands, so it evolves. Some may grow tired of blingy offerings, but millions of others will try their first Western brand this year. “Every three years a new generation is created here,” explains Charles Hayes of Ideo, a consultancy. Even within cities, consumer groups are highly segmented. Donald Blair of Nike, an American sportswear giant, says his firm maps consumer behaviour here “by shopping district and even by street”, so it can customise offerings and outlets.

 

随着中产阶级队伍的扩大，它也在进化。一些人可能已开始厌烦浮华的产品，但仍有数以百万计的人会在今年第一次尝鲜西方品牌。“在这里，每三年就会产生新的一代。”咨询公司Ideo的查尔斯·海耶斯（Charles Hayes）解释说。即使在城市里，消费群体也要高度细分。美国运动服饰巨头耐克的唐纳德·布莱尔（Donald Blair）表示，在中国，该公司“按商业区，甚至按街道”来测定消费者的行为，这样它才能按需定制产品，设立门店。

 

A big winner has been China’s e-commerce, a market that is now larger than America’s. Forrester, another consulting firm, expects gross merchandise value in this sector to exceed $1 trillion by 2019. Outside the big cities bricks-and-mortar stores are thinner on the ground, so online shopping is becoming increasingly important. Even where shops are readily accessible, consumers often go “showrooming”, looking at goods in physical outlets but buying them more cheaply online. This is happening the world over, but in China the trend has been accentuated by the ubiquity of smartphones, the reliability of online-payment systems and the spread of same-day delivery services.

 

中国的电子商务成了大赢家，这一市场如今已大过美国。另一家咨询公司Forrester预计，到2019年，电商的年度成交总额将超过一万亿美元。在大城市以外，街头的实体店较少，因此网络购物正变得愈加重要。即使是在进店购物很方便的地方，消费者也经常是在实体店浏览商品，而在网上以更便宜的价格入手。这在全世界都一样，但在中国，无处不在的智能手机、可靠的在线支付体系，以及当天送达服务的普及，都加强了这一趋势。

 

How would you like your shirt?

你想要什么样的衬衫？

 

This poses a grave threat to old-fashioned retailers. Li & Fung, a supply-chain firm based in Hong Kong, pioneered global outsourcing two decades ago. It has over 3,000 outlets, a third of them in China. Victor Fung, its honorary chairman, sees the era of mass production giving way to one of mass customisation. Markets are fragmenting and smartphones are empowering consumers to get “directly involved in what they buy, where it is made and how they buy it”. Zhao Xiande of CEIBS in Shanghai points to Red Collar, a firm that used simply to make and export garments. Now it lets customers the world over design their own shirts online and makes them to order. Another outfit, Home Koo, offers custom-built furniture online.

 

这让传统零售商面临重大威胁。香港供应链公司利丰（Li & Fung）20年前就开始率先探索全球外包。它拥有3000多家门店，其中三分之一在中国。其荣誉主席冯国经认为大批量生产的时代正让位于大规模定制的时代。市场日渐分化，而智能手机让消费者能够“直接参与到自己买什么、在哪里制造，以及如何购买当中去”。上海中欧国际工商学院的赵先德以红领服饰为例，这家公司过去只是制造和出口成衣。现在，它让世界各地的消费者在线设计自己的衬衫并下单定制。另一家公司尚品宅配则提供在线家具定制。

 

All this e-commerce is producing some remarkable business-model innovations. Thanks to the convergence of mobile commerce and social media, observes Miles Young, chairman of Ogilvy & Mather, an advertising firm, China is the world’s epicentre of “social commerce”. Studies by BCG show that Chinese consumers are much more likely than American or European ones to interact with brands through social media.

 

所有这类电子商务正在孕育出非凡的商业模式创新。得益于移动电子商务和社交媒体的交汇，中国已是世界“社交电子商务”这场强震的震中，广告公司奥美的董事长杨名皓（Miles Young）表示。波士顿咨询的研究显示，相比欧美消费者，中国消费者通过社交媒体与品牌互动的可能性大得多。

 

To try to keep up with all these changes, Mr Fung has kitted out a shopping mall in Shanghai with technologies from IBM that allow detailed tracking of shoppers on site and online. Known as the “Explorium”, it allows retailers to experiment with various multi-channel business models and promotions. Digital disruption challenges retailers everywhere, he says, but in his view China is the most promising place to look for answers.

 

为了迎头赶上所有这些变化，冯国经在上海的购物中心采用了IBM的技术，可以在现场和网上详细跟踪购物者。这就是利程坊，在这里零售商可以试验各种多渠道商业模式和促销。冯国经说，各地零售商都面临数字化颠覆的挑战，但他认为，要寻找答案，中国是最合适的地方。

 

Chinese consumers are fast becoming the world’s most discriminating and knowledgeable. They are also quite brand licentious. The choice of top global brands there is much wider than in America, Europe or Japan. This has resulted in fierce competition, pushing firms to come up with ever more inventive offerings. Audi developed longer saloon cars to cater to wealthy Chinese with chauffeurs, which are now sold globally. Chinese consumers prefer pulpy juices, so Coca-Cola modified its juice formulations; Minute Maid Pulpy is now a billion-dollar global brand. Even Apple’s Mr Cook says his company takes Chinese tastes into account when it designs new products for the world.

 

中国消费者正在快速成长为世界上最有鉴赏力和见识的群体。他们对品牌并不忠诚。这里的世界顶级品牌选择远比美国、欧洲和日本更多。这导致了激烈竞争，迫使公司想出更别出心裁的产品。奥迪开发了加长款豪华轿车以迎合有司机的中国富人，这一车型如今已在全球销售。中国消费者偏爱果肉果汁，可口可乐就为此改良了果汁配方。现在，美汁源已成为价值数十亿美元的全球品牌。即使是苹果的库克也说，他的公司在为全世界设计新产品时会考虑中国人的口味。

 

Mr Young believes that China is leading the world in bringing together the “internet of things” (which connects machines to each other) with the internet used by people. Firms such as Suning, an electronics retailer, Haier and Xiaomi are all connecting smart gadgets with consumers through WeChat and other social media. This seems to be happening more quickly in China than in the West.

 

杨名皓认为，在把“物联网”（把各种设备连接起来）和人们所使用的互联网相融合方面，中国正在引领世界。像电器零售商苏宁，以及海尔、小米等公司，都在通过微信和其他社交媒体把各种智能设备与消费者相连接。这种趋势在中国似乎比在西方发展更快。

 

Are you being served?

你在享受服务吗？

 

Much of this new economy is moving on from supplying goods to providing services. In most rich countries services make up at least three-quarters of GDP, but in China they account for only half. The rising middle class is demanding better services in everything from health care to finance to entertainment. Both foreign and local investors are rushing in to fill the gap.

 

这一新经济的很大部分正从提供产品转向提供服务。在大多数富裕国家，服务业至少占到GDP的四分之三，但在中国，这一比例只有一半。崛起的中产阶级在各方面都要求更好的服务，从医疗保健到金融服务，再到休闲娱乐。外国和本土投资者都蜂拥而至，填补空白。

 

Two decades ago films made by Walt Disney, an American entertainment giant, were banned on the Chinese mainland, but now China is Disney’s most promising market. The company’s latest “Avengers” film earned over $200m in local theatres in its first two weeks. In May Disney opened its largest-ever retail store in Shanghai. And next year Shanghai Disney, a $5.5 billion theme park, will be ready to receive the crowds. Dalian Wanda, which made its fortune in property, is building a massive $8 billion film studio in Qingdao and will be spending over $30 billion on theme parks across China, confronting Disney head on.

 

二十年前，中国大陆还禁止上映美国娱乐巨头迪士尼公司发行的影片，而如今，中国已成为迪士尼最具潜力的市场。该公司最新一部《复仇者联盟》在国内院线上映的头两周票房就超过2亿美元。5月，迪士尼有史以来最大的零售店在上海开业。明年，投资55亿美元的上海迪士尼乐园将建成迎客。以地产起家的大连万达正在青岛建设投资达80亿美元的影视基地，还将投入超过300亿美元在全国各地建立主题公园，与迪士尼针锋相对。

 

Kai-fu Lee of Innovation Works believes that service startups are capable of creating billion-dollar industries. He points to Helijia, a firm valued at $300m that provides pedicures in people’s homes. “They can train workers affordably; Chinese love getting pampered; and our urban density allows this… you can’t do this in Kansas.” His firm is funding firms delivering services ranging from haircuts to car maintenance.

 

创新工场的李开复认为，服务业创业公司能够形成多个数十亿美元的产业。他以河狸家为例，这家提供上门美甲服务的公司估值为3亿美元。“他们以合理的成本培训工人。中国人乐于享受，中国的城市密度也方便上门服务……你不可能在堪萨斯这样干。”创新工场为从理发到汽车保养的一系列服务型企业提供融资。

 

Jean Liu, president of Didi Kuaidi, thinks the sharing economy will allow scarce resources to be used more efficiently. Her ride-sharing firm counts both Tencent and Alibaba as investors. It offers everything from fancy cars and taxis to shuttle buses and car pools – or even someone on a bicycle to drive you home in your own car. It clocks up 6m rides a day, far outpacing Uber.

 

滴滴快的的总裁柳青认为共享经济将可以更有效地利用稀缺资源。她的乘车共享公司背后的投资者包括腾讯和阿里巴巴。该公司提供各类服务，从豪华车到出租车，从班车到拼车，甚至可以安排人骑自行车赶来提供代驾。它每日订单达600万，远超优步。

 

Neusoft, based in Shenyang, a city in China’s gritty industrial north-east, was started in 1991 with just $3,000 by Liu Jiren, an erstwhile academic. It is now one of China’s biggest IT-services providers. Having created a computer operating system that quickly got ripped off, his firm nearly went under. That taught him the value of protecting intellectual property. When he was a visiting scholar at an American government laboratory, he noticed that academics worked closely with corporate researchers. That inspired him to invest heavily in R&D. Among many other things, Neusoft makes systems that allow medical records to be viewed on mobiles. It is also developing a shared-services business model for medical equipment that will allow users to pay by transaction.

 

1991年，从前是大学教授的刘积仁以区区3000美元起家，在中国多沙的传统工业区东北的沈阳市创建了东软集团。该公司如今是中国最大的IT服务供应商之一。东软曾经开发出一套计算机操作系统，很快就被剽窃，公司几乎破产，这让刘积仁知道了保护知识产权的价值。还在美国的一个政府实验室做访问学者时，他就注意到了那里的学者和企业的研发人员密切合作。受此启发，他大量投资于研发。东软开发的很多产品中包括可以在手机上查看病历的系统。另一种医疗设备共享服务的商业模式也在开发之中，它让用户可以按交易付费。

 

 

What helped Neusoft take off, says Mr Liu, was that there were no SOEs to block new software firms. “The Chinese state today is technologically sophisticated… but that was not the case at the start of the IT boom,” says Mr Liu. “We got lucky because the IT sector was so new, so driven by talent, that the government didn’t understand how it worked.”

 

刘积仁认为，东软能够起飞，是因为当时没有国有企业阻碍新软件公司。“现在中国政府在技术上很有经验……但在IT刚刚兴起时不是这样，”刘积仁说，“我们运气很好，当时IT产业太新，太依赖人才推动，政府不懂它的运作。”

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