How Firms Making Clothes, Cars and Computers Would Respond to an All-out Trade War

制造服装、汽车和电脑的公司会如何应对全面贸易战

LLamasoft, a supply-chain analytics firm, looked at representative American MNCs in clothing, cars and electronics to assess the impact of America’s threatened imposition of a 25% tariff on all Chinese imports. It assumed firms would move sourcing and manufacturing out of China only as much as economic logic dictates. The analysis recognised the costs of moving production and the benefits of reduced inventories, cheaper logistics and shorter cycle times for inventory from positioning supplies closer to consumers.

供应链分析公司LLamasoft研究了美国的服装、汽车和电子行业中具代表性的跨国公司，以评估美国威胁要对所有中国进口产品征收25%关税的影响。它假设企业会完全按照经济逻辑将一部分采购和制造从中国转移出去。该分析考虑到了转移生产的成本，以及让供应更接近消费者所带来的库存减少、物流成本降低和库存周期短的好处。

The clothing industry would see total costs jump by 11% after such tariffs. Sourcing costs would rise by 23% and manufacturing costs by 43%, but nearshoring would improve average cycle times from 19 to 14 days. Overall costs in the car industry would increase by less than 4%, but that would mask powerful counter-currents from the shift to regional hubs. Manufacturing costs would shoot up by 21%, but sourcing costs would drop by 25%. With cycle times falling from 127 days to 95, inventory and logistics costs would be cut.

加征这样的关税后，服装行业的总成本将增加11%。采购成本将增加23%，制造成本增加43%，但近岸采购可将平均周期时间从19天减少到14天。汽车行业的总体成本将增加不到4%，但这将掩盖向区域中心转移带来的强大逆流。制造成本将增加21%，但采购成本将下降25%。随着周期时间从127天下降到95天，库存和物流成本将被削减。

The electronics sector, which has strong roots in China, would see an increase in total costs of only 2%. Because making such kit outside the mainland is much pricier, even the modest amount of nearshoring assumed sends manufacturing costs shooting up by 28%. However, the reduction in cycle times from 35 days to 28 days would cut logistics costs and inventory costs dramatically.

牢固扎根于中国的电子行业的总成本仅将增长2%。因为在中国大陆之外制造这样的设备要贵得多，即使只假设适度的近岸采购，也会使制造成本上升28%。然而，将周期时间从35天减少到28天会大大降低物流和库存的成本。

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