Adapting to Climate Change: Pricing Right, Taxing Smart, and Acting Now

适应气候变化：正确定价，明智征税，立即行动

 

– United Nations Investor Summit on Climate Risk

——联合国气候风险投资峰会

 

A Conversation with IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhang Tao

与国际货币基金组织副总裁张涛的对话

January 31, 2018

2018年1月31日

1. We recently have seen the IMF appearing to step up its work on climate change. Why now?

1.我们最近看到，国际货币基金组织似乎加大了在气候变化问题上的工作力度。为什么是现在这个时候？

The Short Answer: This is our response to the threat climate change poses to our planet – and the growing demand from our membership and the international community to respond.

简短回答：气候变化给我们的星球带来威胁，我们的成员国和国际社会越来越多地要求我们采取应对措施，因此，我们做出了回应。

The IMF has been involved in the climate change work for several years. Our recent work reflects compelling evidence that adapting to climate change is one of the most important challenges facing economic policy makers worldwide. The IMF also has an obligation as a member of international community to address the doubts about climate change with fact-based analysis.

国际货币基金组织多年来一直在参与气候变化工作。我们的近期工作反映了以下方面的强有力证据，即适应气候变化是当前全球经济政策制定者面临的最重要挑战之一。作为国际社会的一个成员，国际货币基金组织有义务通过基于事实的分析，回答人们在气候变化方面的疑问。

The Long Answer: The Fund’s core mandate is to ensure economic stability and resilience. Climate change could prove to be a destabilizing force for the global economy if it is not addressed.

详尽回答：国际货币基金组织的核心职能是确保经济稳定和具有韧性。气候变化问题若得不到解决，可能成为破坏全球经济稳定的因素。

The macroeconomic impact of climate change was illustrated by the especially damaging hurricane season last year in the Caribbean and the USA. We certainly will see more frequent and more damaging such natural disasters in the future.

去年，加勒比地区和美国发生了极具破坏性的飓风，显示了气候变化对宏观经济的影响。今后，我们肯定会看到这种自然灾害发生得更为频繁、带来的破坏性更大。

So, the key question is what we can do – and do better – in helping policymakers confront the challenges of climate change?

所以，关键的问题是，为了帮助政策制定者应对气候变化挑战，我们能做什么，能在什么方面做得更好？

Two key areas of work are: mitigation, which includes helping countries meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions; and adaptation, which focuses on building resilience to climate change. Our general message to our membership with regard to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement to contain emissions is to “price it right; tax it smart; and do it now.”

两个主要工作领域是：缓解气候变化影响，这包括帮助各国履行其在巴黎协议下的减排承诺；以及适应气候变化，这侧重于增强对气候变化的风险抵御能力。在实现巴黎协议减排目标方面，我们传递给成员国的总体信息是：“正确定价，明智征税，立即行动。”

2. What are the main findings of your work on climate change? What risks does climate change have on the global economy?

2.你们的气候变化工作有哪些主要结论？气候变化给全球经济带来什么风险？

We are deeply concerned about the link between climate change and macroeconomic performance. Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate over the past 40 years, and significant additional warming could occur. All countries will be affected if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

我们密切关注气候变化与宏观经济表现之间的联系。过去40年里，全球气温以前所未有的速度上升，气候可能会进一步大幅变暖。如果我们不减少温室气候排放，所有国家都将受到影响。

Most importantly, increases in global temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects for countries in different income groups. For example, we estimate that the average annual cost of natural disasters in low-income countries is equal to 2 percent of GDP. That is four times the impact on larger economies.

最重要的是，全球气温上升会对不同收入组别的国家产生不均衡的宏观经济影响。例如，我们估计，在低收入国家，自然灾害的平均年度成本相当于GDP的2%。这是较大型经济体所受影响的四倍。

That calls for a clear focus on low income countries, including the small island economies.

因此，必须更加关注低收入国家，包括小型岛国。

 

Let’s examine this in terms of policies focused on adaptation and mitigation. For adaptation, we find that sound domestic policies and investment in specific strategies can help reduce the adverse consequences of weather shocks.

我们从侧重适应和缓解气候变化的政策角度来分析这一问题。在适应气候变化方面，我们发现，健全的国内政策和特定战略的投资有助于减轻天气冲击的不利后果。

For example, in Grenada we have encouraged the government to save 40 percent of the revenue from its Citizenship by Investment Program as a buffer against future natural disasters. In addition, Grenada has included a hurricane clause to it debt agreements to defer debt payments if there is by a natural disaster.

例如，在格林纳达，我们鼓励政府将“投资入籍计划”所获收入的40%结存下来，作为应对未来自然灾害的缓冲。此外，格林纳达将飓风条款纳入债务协议，在发生自然灾害时能够推迟偿付债务。

For mitigation, our main finding is that carbon pricing is crucial in reducing emissions, and carbon taxes are more effective than other mitigation instruments. There are environmental benefits such as reduced air pollution, and increased government revenues.

在缓解气候变化影响方面，我们的主要结论是，碳定价对于减少排放至关重要，碳税比其他缓解工具更为有效。在环境方面有好处，如减少空气污染，另外，政府也能增加收入。

3. How does the IMF help its membership in addressing the risks of climate change and which countries/regions are most affected?

3.国际货币基金组织如何帮助成员国应对气候变化风险，哪些国家和地区受到最大影响？

We are helping countries through the core operations of the institution, with a focus on low-income countries. This work takes place on several fronts: macroeconomic analysis, policy advice, capacity development, and financial assistance.

我们通过本机构的核心业务向各国提供帮助，重点是低收入国家。这一工作在几个领域展开：宏观经济分析，政策建议，能力建设以及资金援助。

We undertake macroeconomic analysis at the country, regional and global levels. The challenge is to understand how policy and environmental objectives interact. In this regard, I would highlight our October 2017 World Economic Outlook, which devotes a chapter to the implications of weather shocks for low-income countries.

我们在国家、地区和全球层面开展宏观经济分析。面临的挑战是，了解政策和环境目标如何相互作用。在这方面，我想特别提到我们2017年10月的《世界经济展望》，其中有一章专门探讨天气冲击对低收入国家的影响。

We are assessing the emissions prices and other policies countries will need to meet their mitigation pledges. This assessment is key to developing carbon pricing measures and related policies.

我们在评估排放价格以及各国履行减排承诺所需实施的其他政策。这种评估是制定碳定价措施和相关政策的关键。

We use our analysis to provide the practical policy advice so that countries can better respond to the challenges of climate change.

我们利用我们的分析提供可行的政策建议，使各国能够更好地应对气候变化挑战。

We tailor our capacity development work to help governments to implement these policies. This includes training and customized advice.

我们有针对性地开展能力建设工作，帮助各国政府实施这些政策。这包括培训和“量身定制”的建议。

We provide financial assistance to assist the response to climate-related events. For example, during the 2015 Ebola crisis in West Africa, we established a Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust. This facility provides debt relief to poor countries hit by natural disasters, thus freeing up resources to respond to a crisis.

我们提供资金援助，协助各国应对气候相关事件。例如，在2015年西非埃博拉危机期间，我们建立了控灾和减灾信托。这一机制向遭受自然灾害的贫困国家提供债务减免，从而释放资源以应对危机。

In addition, beginning in December 2016, the amount that countries can borrow after a large natural disaster was nearly doubled. This will enhance the effectiveness of other forms of support.

此外，从2016年12月起，一国在遭受严重自然灾害后可借入的资金数额几乎翻了一番。这将提高其他形式支持的有效性。

4. More specifically, how do you see measures such as energy subsidy reform and carbon taxes addressing risks of climate change?

4.更具体而言，你们认为能源补贴改革和碳税等措施如何解决气候变化风险？

We see two ways to assess the costs associated with fossil fuels. The first is the failure to fully recover supply costs in subsidized user prices for energy. In 2015, this part of the subsidy amounted to $330 billion worldwide.

我们认为，可以通过两种方式评估化石燃料的相关成本。第一种是，能源用户补贴价格无法完全收回供给成本。2015年，这一部分补贴在全球范围达到3300亿美元。

The second is a broader measure that also includes undercharging for environmental costs and for general consumer taxes. We estimate this cost at $5.3 trillion – equivalent to about 14 percent of global GDP in 2016.

第二种是更为广义的衡量方法，还包括未计入的环境成本和一般消费税收。我们估计，在2016年，这一成本为5.3万亿美元，相当于全球GDP的14%左右。

The Fund takes the view that energy subsidies have negative economic and environmental effects. Several studies have shown that subsidies benefit the wealthiest households and reinforce income inequalities. They also encourage wasteful energy consumption. The IMF is playing its part with assessments of energy subsidies, emissions prices, and other policies.

国际货币基金组织认为，能源补贴对经济和环境有不利影响。几项研究已显示，补贴使最富有的家庭受益，会加剧收入不平等。补贴还鼓励浪费型能源消费。在评估能源补贴、排放价格和其他政策方面，国际货币基金组织正在做出自己的贡献。

5. How do you see the private sector role in financing or investing in infrastructure helping to address climate risks?

5.私人部门在有助于应对气候风险的基础设施融资和投资方面发挥什么作用？

Addressing climate change can only be successful if there is a partnership among governments, international organizations, and the private sector. The role of business is critical in infrastructure development. The challenge is for countries to create projects that are attractive to investors. Our work in this area aims to create an enabling environment for this investment.

只有在政府、国际组织和私人部门之间建立合作关系的情况下，应对气候变化的努力才能成功。在基础设施建设过程中，商业发挥着至关重要的作用。各国面临的挑战是创造对投资者有吸引力的项目。我们在这一领域的工作旨在为这种投资创造有利的环境。

We have launched an infrastructure policy support initiative to help countries meet their infrastructure needs in a way that supports macroeconomic stability and is fiscally sustainable.

我们发起了一项基础设施政策支持倡议，帮助各国以有利于宏观经济稳定、财政上可持续的方式，满足基础设施需求。

We also have developed a model that analyzes the macroeconomic effects of natural disasters. It helps to define the appropriate financing mix to build resilient infrastructure. This is being applied in our policy recommendations in several countries, including the Solomon Islands and the Maldives.

我们还建立了一个模型，分析自然灾害的宏观经济影响。它有助于确定适当的融资组合，以建设具有风险抵御能力的基础设施。这在我们对几个国家（包括索罗门群岛和马尔代夫）的政策建议中得到运用。

6. What are the future risks of climate change and what’s next for the IMF’s work in this regard?

6.气候变化的未来风险是什么，国际货币基金组织今后在这方面将开展哪些工作？

The science is very clear about the future risks. In our work, we fully accept these scientific facts.

科学研究明确指出了今后的风险。在我们的工作中，我们充分接受这些科学事实。

In terms of what’s next, our efforts are focused on developing tools to help countries to take measures to meet their mitigation commitments and to recognize the environmental, economic, and fiscal impact of those policies.

我们今后的工作将侧重于开发有关工具，帮助各国采取措施履行减排承诺，并帮助它们了解这些政策对环境、经济和财政产生的影响。

We are also starting to assess the interaction of climate risks and financial stability. For example, we have collaborated with the World Bank and UN Environment on the “roadmap” for green financing.

我们也已开始评估气候风险与金融稳定之间的相互作用。例如，我们与世界银行和联合国环境署就绿色融资“路线图”开展了合作。

I would like to emphasize the Fund’s work with small island states – which are most vulnerable to climate change, but least equipped to build resilience.

我想强调国际货币基金组织对小型岛国开展的工作。这些国家最容易受到气候变化的影响，但增强韧性的能力最为缺乏。

To attract investors and donors, small islands will need to create a favorable macroeconomic and business environment. This includes assurances that investors will get a fair return and that money will be well spent. The Fund is advising through what we call the Climate Change Policy Assessments for island states.

为了吸引投资者和捐助方，小型岛国需要创造有利的宏观经济和商业环境。这包括使投资者确信，他们能够获得公平的回报，资金将得到有效使用。国际货币基金组织正通过针对岛屿国家的“气候变化政策评估”，向它们提供建议。

These assessments take stock of countries’ mitigation and adaptation plans, risk-management strategies, and financing capabilities. They identify areas where countries need investment, policy changes, or capacity-building assistance. For example, we are working to create room in government budgets to enhance preparedness and resilience to natural disasters. This focuses mainly on mobilizing revenue, redirecting spending, and improving public financial management.

这些评估分析各国的缓解和适应计划、风险管理策略以及融资能力。通过评估，确定各国在哪些领域需要投资、政策调整或能力建设援助。例如，我们正开展工作，在政府预算中留出空间，以增强防范和抵御自然灾害的能力。这主要侧重于调动收入、调整支出方向以及改善公共财政管理。

This type of assessment should be useful for investors, as it helps to signal which countries have a sustainable climate strategy. The Seychelles offers a model in this regard, linking mitigation and adaptation plans to financial support and risk-management. Their strategy includes financial innovations such as a “blue bonds” to protect marine resources, and debt-for-nature swaps that are attracting foreign investors.

这类评估对投资者应当是有用的，因为它能显示哪些国家具备可持续的气候策略。塞舌尔将缓解和适应计划与金融支持和风险管理相挂钩，在这方面提供了一个典范。其策略包括金融创新，如保护海洋资源的“蓝色债券”，以及吸引外国投资者的债务环境交换项目融资转换。

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