ASEAN and the IMF: Working Together to Foster Inclusive Growth
东盟与国际货币基金组织：携手促进包容性增长
– Keynote Speech at the High-level International Conference “New Growth Models in a Changing Global Landscape”
——“变化的全球形式下的新型增长模式”高级国际会议的主旨演讲
Christine Lagarde
克里斯蒂娜·拉加德
Jakarta, Indonesia, 27 February 2018
2018年2月27日，雅加达
1. Introduction
1.引言
Selamat pagi – Good morning!
Selamat pagi（印尼语）——早上好！
I would like to thank President Widodo, Governor Agus, and Minister Indrawati for their warm welcome and hospitality.
感谢维多多总统、阿古斯行长和英卓华部长的热烈欢迎和热情款待。
Thank you not only to Bank of Indonesia for co-organizing our conference, but to all of you for hosting the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in October.
感谢印尼央行共同主办我们这次会议，也感谢为承办10月召开的国际货币基金组织世界银行年会工作的所有人。
We are embarking on this great “Voyage” together.
我们正携手开启这一伟大的“征程”。
It will be the first time that our Annual Meetings are held in Indonesia – a country that has transformed itself in recent decades through sound economic policies, and by harnessing the incredible ingenuity and diversity of its people.
这将是我们首次在印度尼西亚举办年会——近几十年来，印度尼西亚凭借着良好的经济政策并充分利用了人民令人难以置信的独创性和多样性，实现了自身转型。
In fact, over the next few days, I look forward to experiencing Indonesia’s dynamism and beauty first-hand. This will include meetings with civil society, women, students, and other, as well as visiting Bali and the Borobudur temple.
实际上，我期待在未来几天里亲身去体验印尼的活力和美丽。我将会见民间团体、女性代表、在校学生及其他人士，我还会访问巴厘岛和婆罗浮屠寺庙。
Indonesia and its ASEAN partners have been successful in creating vibrant middle classes, opening the doors to higher living standards for millions of people. By generating strong growth over the past two decades, they have also become key drivers of the global economy.
印尼及其东盟合作伙伴国成功培育出了充满活力的中产阶级，为数百万人提高生活水平打开了大门。它们在过去二十年间实现了强劲增长，成为全球经济的主要推动力。
Their success is no accident. It is about implementing strong policy frameworks, drawing lessons from the past, and embracing change and openness. All that work has paid off.
它们的成功绝非偶然。这归功于实施了强有力的政策框架，汲取了先前的经验教训，并拥抱了变革与开放。所有这些努力都取得了成效。
The world can learn so much from this region – including the so-called “ASEAN way” of reaching across borders. It is, in my view, beautifully captured in the Indonesian phrase, “gotong royong,” “working together to achieve a common goal.”
全世界都可以从这个地区学到很多——包括所谓跨国合作的“东盟模式”。我认为，这一点在印尼习语中得到了很好体现：“gotong royong”，即“共同努力，实现共同目标”。
That spirit also lies at the heart of the IMF. In this region and across the world, the Fund is working in partnership with our member countries to achieve a common goal – building economies that are fit for the future.
这种精神也是基金组织的核心理念。在本地区乃至全世界，基金组织正与我们的成员国开展合作，以实现一个共同的目标——构建适应于未来的经济。
Today our discussions will focus on how we can create new growth models that are both sustainable and inclusive. That is our common responsibility.
今天，我们将集中讨论如何建立可持续和包容性的新型增长模式。这是我们共同的责任。
2. Changing economic landscapes
2.变化中的经济格局
Starting with the global economic picture, the good news is that we finally see a broad-based upswing, involving three quarters of the world economy. We expect global growth to accelerate further to 3.9 percent this year, and 3.9 percent next year as well.
让我们从全球经济形势说起。好消息是我们终于看到大范围的经济回升，全球四分之三的经济体实现回升。我们预计，今年全球经济增长将进一步提速至3.9%，明年也将保持在3.9%。
There is good news also in Indonesia, where growth is projected to reach 5.3 percent in 2018, and rise gradually over the medium term. This momentum can lead to further increases in economic and social wellbeing.
印度尼西亚也有好消息，预计2018年经济增速将达到5.3% ，且增速将在中期逐步上升。这一势头将进一步提高其经济社会福祉。
Indonesia can be proud of the progress achieved. Over the past two decades, poverty levels have declined by almost 40 percent; life expectancy has increased by more than 6 percent; and the number of people with tertiary schooling has increased by 250 percent.
印尼可以为取得的进展感到自豪。在过去的20年，其贫困水平下降了近40%，预期寿命提高了6%以上，接受过高等教育的人口增加了250%。
These achievements are representative of the positive trends across ASEAN countries.
这些成就，代表了东盟各国的积极趋势。
At the same time, economic landscapes are shifting. Think of the increased volatility in financial markets. Think of the heightened risk of trade disputes. And think of the profound impact of rapid technological advances such as digitalization, robotics, and artificial intelligence.
与此同时，经济格局正在发生变化。想想金融市场的波动性加大，贸易纠纷的风险增加；想想数字化、机器人技术和人工智能等技术突飞猛进带来的深远影响。
The ASEAN countries can navigate this difficult terrain by meeting three main challenges: managing uncertainty; making their economies more inclusive; and preparing for the digital revolution.
东盟国家可以通过应对三大挑战来度过这一难关：管理不确定性；提高经济的包容性；为数字革命做好准备。
a) Managing uncertainty
a）管理不确定性
Let us start with uncertainty. Again, the good news is that ASEAN countries have built stronger economic foundations – which helped them weather the global financial crisis and the “taper tantrum” in 2013.
首先是不确定性。又一个好消息是，东盟国家已建立起更为坚实的经济基础——这不仅帮助它们渡过了全球金融危机，也使其成功应对了2013年美联储宣布缩减量化宽松造成的恐慌。
Indeed, most countries in the region have improved their policy frameworks.
事实上，该地区大多数国家都改善了它们的政策框架。
This includes adopting inflation targeting in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand; as well as fiscal rules in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. More broadly, it also involves strengthening financial policies and allowing for more exchange rate flexibility across the region.
这包括印尼、菲律宾和泰国采取了通胀目标制，以及印尼、马来西亚和越南建立了财政规则。更广泛而言，这还包括本地区各国加强了金融政策以及提高了汇率弹性等。
But the recent volatility in financial markets has been a reminder that a fundamental economic transition is underway. Policymakers around the world – including in ASEAN – are preparing for the gradual normalization of monetary policy in major advanced economies.
但近期金融市场的波动提醒着人们：经济正经历着根本性的转变。包括东盟在内的世界各国政策制定者们，都在为主要发达经济体 货币政策逐步回归常态做准备。
We have known for some time that this is coming, but it remains uncertain as to how exactly it will affect companies, jobs, and incomes.
一段时间以来，我们都知道这种转变将会到来。但它究竟会如何影响企业、就业和收入，我们仍不确定。
Clearly, policymakers need to stay vigilant about the likely effects on financial stability, including the prospect of volatile capital flows. There is also room for bold reforms to make economies more resilient.
显然，政策制定者们需要对金融稳定可能受到的影响保持警惕，包括可能出现不稳定的资本流动。政策制定者们也有实施大刀阔斧改革的余地，以提高经济的韧性。
As I have been saying recently, the time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining. What do I mean by that?
正如我最近所说的那样，要趁阳光明媚时把屋顶修好。这句话是什么意思呢？
I mean that governments can use this moment of stronger growth to reinforce their policy frameworks. This includes further efforts to reform financial markets, upgrade labor laws, and lower barriers to entry in overly protected industries.
我的意思是，各国政府可以利用当前增长较为强劲的时期，巩固其政策框架。这包括开展更多工作来改革金融市场、升级劳动法、降低过度保护行业的准入门槛等。
Repairing the roof also means using fiscal reforms to generate higher public revenues, where needed, and improve spending. By boosting public finances, countries can increase infrastructure investment and development spending, especially on social safety nets for the most vulnerable.
修理屋顶还意味着，在必要时推出财政改革来提高公共收入，同时改善支出。通过改善公共财政，各国可增加基础设施投资和发展性支出，特别是针对最弱势群体的社会安全网支出。
b) Making economies more inclusive
b）提高经济的包容性
Even as they manage uncertainty, ASEAN countries also need to improve their long-term growth prospects.
在管理不确定性的同时，东盟各国也需要改善其长期增长前景。
They recognize the need for new growth models that put a greater emphasis on domestic demand, regional trade, and economic diversification.
它们认识到需要新型增长模式，应更加侧重国内需求、区域贸易和经济多元化。
On that point, new IMF analysis shows that increasing the range and quality of a country’s exports can lead to significantly higher GDP growth [1] and greater economic stability.
在这一点上，基金组织的分析表明，一国扩大出口范围并提高出口质量，可使其GDP大幅增加并提高经济的稳定性。例如，一国出口多样性的小幅提升[1]，将使GDP增速提高1个百分点。
These gains are achievable. Why? Because many countries in the region have successfully shifted a large part of their resources into higher-productivity areas – for example, by moving from agriculture to industrial production, to advanced manufacturing and services.
这些好处是可以实现的。为什么？因为本地区许多国家都已成功将大部分资源转移到了生产率较高的领域——例如，从农业转到工业生产，再到先进制造业和服务业。
But this is not enough. To be sustainable, new growth models also must be more inclusive. Recent IMF research has shown that, when the benefits of growth are shared more broadly, growth is stronger, more durable, and more resilient.
但这还不够。要实现可持续发展，新的增长模式还必须更具包容性。基金组织最近研究表明，当更多人能够分享增长的好处时，增长将更加强劲、更为持久且更加稳健。
Most ASEAN countries are already in a relatively strong position, because they have used specific policies to help reduce income inequality over the past three decades.
大多数东盟国家已经处于较为有利的形势，因为它们在过去30年中出台了具体政策来降低收入不平等程度。
Thailand, for example, introduced universal health coverage in 2001; the Philippines launched conditional cash transfers in 2008; and Indonesia has improved the way it delivers assistance to low-income groups – including through the use of e-cards.
例如，泰国在2001年实行了全民医疗覆盖，菲律宾于2008年启动了有条件的现金转移，印尼改善了向低收入群体提供援助的方式——包括通过使用电子卡。
All ASEAN members can build on their achievements to ensure that the next generation will be better off.
所有东盟成员国都可以再接再厉，确保下一代人过得更好。
Managing demographic transitions is a major part of this equation.
其中一个重要的方面是管理人口转型。
Countries with young and growing populations – such as Indonesia and Malaysia – can seize this opportunity to reap a “demographic dividend” by creating more, higher-quality jobs.
年轻人口不断增长的印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国可以抓住这个机遇，通过创造更多更高质量的就业机会来收获“人口红利”。
At the same time, countries such as Thailand and Vietnam can take steps to mitigate the effects of rapidly aging populations by using technology to boost workforce productivity.
同时，泰国和越南等国可以采取措施，通过利用技术来提高劳动生产率，从而缓解人口迅速老龄化的影响。
Of course, these are only some of the tools that can be used. While there is no single policy recipe in this incredibly diverse region, all countries can benefit from sharing their experiences – working together to promote inclusive growth.
当然，这些只是可以使用的一部分工具。虽然在这个极具多元化的地区并不存在一个普适的政策配方，但所有国家都可以从分享经验中受益——共同合作促进包容性增长。
What have we learned?
我们学到了什么？
A key priority is investing in people. In most ASEAN countries, there is room to increase education spending. Think of “Indonesia Pintar,” a savings program that will help keep more than 20 million children enrolled in schools.
一个关键的优先项是投资于人。大多数东盟国家都有增加教育支出的余地。想想“印度尼西亚平塔”（Indonesia Pintar）储蓄计划，它将帮助 2000多万儿童入校上学。
There is also room to boost the proportion of women in the workforce by, for instance, providing affordable childcare and promoting women’s access to finance.
也有余地提高女性在劳动力中所占比例。例如，这可通过提供可负担的儿童保育服务和帮助女性获得融资来实现。
Here in Indonesia, female participation in the labor market has increased in recent years to 51 percent. Building on this momentum will be critical to close the gender gap. [2]
在印度尼西亚，女性在劳动力市场中的参与率近年来已上升至51%。延续这种势头对缩小性别差距至关重要。[2]
This could be an economic game-changer – and not just in this country. By some estimates, closing the gender gap in the labor market could boost GDP by 9 percent in Japan, 10 percent in Korea, and 27 percent in India.
这可能给经济带来巨大的变化——而这不仅限于印尼。据估计，缩小劳动力市场中的性别差距可以使日本的GDP增加9%，韩国增加10%，印度增加27%。
Another policy priority is to improve the business environment – by cutting red tape and stepping up the fight against corruption. This can make it easier for new and innovative firms to get started and grow, creating jobs in dynamic sectors.
另一项政策重点是改善商业环境——即通过简化手续和加大打击腐败力度来实现。这可让新的创新企业更易启动、成长，在富有活力的部门中创造就业机会。
Investment in high-quality infrastructure is also important. Indonesia, for example, has a pipeline of more than 250 projects; the Philippines plans to spend $180 billion on rails, roads, and airports.
投资高质量的基础设施也很重要。例如，印尼有250多个项目正在开发中，总成本达到3230亿美元；菲律宾计划在铁路、公路和机场上投入 1800亿美元。
Provided this investment is efficient and cost-effective, it will boost productivity, incomes, and jobs.
只要这些投资是高效的、具有成本效益，那它就能提高生产率、改善收入并增加就业机会。
All of this is important. But it will only take us so far.
所有这些都很重要。不过这些仅能让我们前进至此。
c) Preparing for the digital revolution
c）为数字革命做好准备
We also must prepare for the digital revolution that is already beginning to change workplaces and economic structures – in this region and around the world.
我们还必须为数字革命做好准备，这场革命已经开始改变工作环境和经济结构——在本地区乃至全世界都是如此。
A recent McKinsey study found that 60 percent of today’s jobs comprise some tasks that will soon be automated.
最近麦肯锡的一项研究发现，在如今的工作中，有60%的工作都包含很快将被自动化取代的部分任务。
So we all need to think about the future of work. Managing this transition will be a major part of the answer to creating opportunities for all people.
所以我们都需要考虑工作的未来。管理好这一过渡，是解答如何为所有人创造机遇的重要一环。
We know that new growth models will rely on a range of technological innovations – from artificial intelligence, to robotics, to biotechnology, to fintech.
我们知道，新的增长模式将依赖于一系列技术创新——从人工智能到机器人，到生物技术，再到金融科技。
We also know that this region is, in many ways, a leader in these fields. I recently attended the Singapore Fintech Festival, where I had a chance to meet with some of the world’s most dynamic entrepreneurs and innovators.
我们也知道，本地区在很多方面都是这些领域的领导者。我最近参加了新加坡金融科技节。在那里，我有机会与世界上一些最具活力的企业家和创新者见面。
In Indonesia, we see a vibrant digital ecosystem with more than 1,700 startups – one of the world’s largest clusters of new firms. A good example is Go-Jek, which has transformed itself from a ride-hailing app into a platform for mobile payments and many other services.
在印尼，我们看到了一个充满活力的数字生态系统，它拥有1700多家初创公司——是全球最大的新型企业集群之一。Go-Jek 就是一个很好的例子，它已从一款打车应用程序，转变为一个提供移动支付和许多其他服务的平台。
The goal must be to harness this digital revolution in the best possible way – by improving digital infrastructures and by making education systems fit for the future.
我们的目标必须是以最好的方式利用这场数字革命——通过改善数字基础设施并使教育体系适应未来而实现。
I believe that very soon, we will be speaking of the change underway not as the “digital economy,” but just “the economy.”
我相信很快，我们在说到当下的这场变革时，不再称其为“数字经济”，而仅仅是“经济”。
We need to ensure that this new economy is not just a boost to productivity and growth, but also a foundation for a world that works for young and old, rich and poor, urban communities and remote villages.
我们需要保证这种新经济不仅将提高生产率和经济增速，还会成为新世界的基础——在这个世界中，不论年轻年老、贫困富裕，不论身在城市还是偏于一隅，人们都能有机会实现价值。
Our common responsibility is to help create a smarter economy, a fairer economy, an economy with a human face.
我们的共同责任是帮助创造更加智慧的经济，更加公平的经济，更人性化的经济。
The IMF is your partner in this great endeavor.
在这一伟大征程上，基金组织是你们的合作伙伴。
That is why we are working with you – and all our members – to address urgent macro-critical challenges, such as reducing inequality, increasing gender equity, and mitigating the effects of climate change.
这就是为什么我们与你们——我们的全部成员国——开展合作，努力解决紧迫的具有宏观重要性的挑战，如减少不平等、提高性别平等、缓解气候变化的影响等。
And we are using all the tools at our disposal – from economic analysis, to financial resources, to our support for capacity development.
我们也正使用所有可用的工具——从经济分析到资金资源，再到开展能力建设支持工作。
With our 189 member countries, we can also provide a unique platform for cooperation.
通过我们的189个成员国，我们还可以提供一个独特的合作平台。
3. Stepping up regional and global cooperation
3.加强区域和全球合作
This brings me to another crucial area where ASEAN countries are leaders.
说到这，我想谈谈东盟国家另一个领先的重要方面。
I am talking about the continuous process of regional integration – working together to increase the size of the economic pie for all countries.
我所说的，是这里持续不断的地区一体化进程——共同努力，为所有国家把经济蛋糕做大。
ASEAN can be proud of the progress made so far, including the elimination of intra-regional tariffs.
东盟可以为至今取得的进展感到自豪，包括取消区域内关税。
Now is the time to build on these achievements by removing nontariff barriers to further energize trade within ASEAN, allowing for more labor mobility across borders, and strengthening anti-corruption frameworks, including anti-money laundering – so that funds are not diverted into dark channels but instead are invested where they should be: in local companies, schools and hospitals – in people.
现在，是时候在以下方面再接再厉了：消除非关税壁垒，进一步促进东盟内部的贸易活动；允许更多的跨境劳动力流动；强化包括反洗钱在内的反腐败框架——使资金不会流向“黑色渠道”，而是投向其该去的地方，即对当地企业、学校和医院投资——对人进行投资。
Again, the IMF can help – a new IMF in a new era, seeking to serve our members in new and better ways.
基金组织能给予支持——全新时代的全新基金组织，将力求以全新的、更好的方式为我们的成员国提供服务。
This includes listening and learning from all our partners – in Indonesia, ASEAN, and across the world.
这包括向我们在印尼、东盟乃至全世界的所有合作伙伴倾听并学习。
4. Conclusion
4.总结
Let me conclude by returning to the “ASEAN way.”
最后，让我回来谈谈“东盟模式”。
It is, in my view, beautifully captured in the official motto of Indonesia: “Bhinneka Tunggal Ika,” “Unity in Diversity.”
在我看来，“东盟模式”在印尼的官方座右铭“Bhinneka Tunggal Ika”（也即“多元而统一”中）中得到了精彩的体现。
By working together, and by harnessing this region’s incredible diversity of languages, geographies, and economies, we have an opportunity to create new growth models that can benefit all.
通过共同努力，并通过充分利用本地区极为多样的语言、地域和经济特征，我们有机会创造出让所有人都受益的新型增长模式。
I look forward to our discussions today – and to our Annual Meetings in October!
我非常期待今天的讨论，也很期待我们10月份召开的年会！
Terima kasih.
Terima kasih（印尼语“谢谢”）。
[1] For example, in low-income countries, a one-unit improvement in a country’s export diversification index can lead to a one percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth.
[1]即出口产品多样性增加一个标准差。
[2] The female labor force participation rate is 51 percent, compared with 83 percent for men.
[2]女性劳动力参与率为51%，男性则为83%。
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