Fix the Roof While the Window of Opportunity is Open: Three Priorities for the Global Economy

绸缪于机会之窗尚存之际：全球经济的三大当务之急

 

– Speech at University of Hong Kong

——在香港大学的演讲

Christine Lagarde

克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

Hong Kong, 11 April 2018

2018年4月11日，香港

Good afternoon – ńgh ōn!

下午好——午安（粤语）！

I would like to thank the Asia Global Institute and the University of Hong Kong for welcoming me back to this great city.

感谢亚洲环球研究所和香港大学欢迎我重返香港这座了不起的城市。

Like others, I am always struck by Hong Kong SAR’s unique flavor. Think of the incredible ingenuity and energy of its people. And think of their ability not just to adapt to change, but to actively shape their future.

同其他人一样，香港特别行政区的独特韵味总是让我深受触动。想想看，香港人民不但具有惊人的独创性，而且活力无限。再想想看，香港人民不仅能够适应变革，而且能够主动创造和把握自己的未来。

Hong Kong’s transformation – from manufacturing powerhouse, to global trade engine, to world-class financial center – reflects its unique commitment to openness, to combining home-grown talent with fresh ideas and expertise from across the world.

从制造业基地，到全球贸易引擎，再到世界级金融中心——香港转型的成功反映出其为实现开放、将本土人才与世界各地新观念和专业知识相结合作出的独特承诺。

Of course, greater economic openness increases one’s sensitivity to shifting trends.

当然，更高程度的经济开放也令人对趋势的变化更为敏感。

Hong Kongers are keenly aware that economic history never moves in a straight line but in cycles. And they know that when the economy is moving – up or down – policymakers cannot afford to stand still.

香港人敏锐地意识到，经济发展过程从来不是直线行进的，而是循环往复、周而复始。而且他们清楚，当经济在运行变化时——无论是上行还是下行，政策制定者都不能停滞不前。

This is also the story of our global economy.

这也正是全球经济发展的情形。

The world is currently experiencing a strong upswing that holds the promise of higher incomes and living standards. Delivering on this promise is critical, not just here in Asia but around the world.

眼下，全球经济正强劲回升，承载着人们提高收入和生活水平的希望。实现这一希望对于亚洲乃至全世界而言都至关重要。

I have been calling on all governments to use the current growth momentum for much-needed policy actions and reforms, especially in labor markets and service sectors.

我一直呼吁各国政府利用当前的经济增长势头开展亟需的政策行动和改革，尤其是在劳动力市场和服务业部门。

In other words, fix the roof while the sun is still shining.

换言之，需要未雨绸缪。

These reforms are often politically difficult, but they are more effective and easier to implement when economies are moving up, not down.

这些改革往往在政治上举步维艰，但如果适逢经济呈上行而非下行趋势，那么它们将会更具成效、也更易实施。

Some governments have taken action, but more needs to be done.

部分国家政府已经采取了行动，不过还需要开展更多工作。

The window of opportunity is open. Yet there is new urgency because uncertainties have significantly increased – from trade tensions, to rising financial and fiscal risks, to more uncertain geopolitics.

机会之窗尚存。不过，目前的形势带来了新的紧迫性，因为各种不确定因素已大幅增加——从贸易紧张局势，到不断加大的金融和财政风险，再到更不确定的地缘政治。

How can we sustain the current upswing in the face of these rising risks? And how can we foster long-term growth that benefits all?

我们怎样才能在这些风险不断增加的情况下维持当前的经济回升之势？我们怎样才能促进长期经济增长以造福于所有人？

These are the issues that Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will discuss next week at the IMF and World Bank’s Spring Meetings.

这些正是各国财政部长和央行行长在下周国际货币基金组织和世界银行的春季会议上将要讨论的问题。

And they are the issues that I would like to talk about today.

这些也是我今天想要谈论的问题。

State of the global economy

 

全球经济状况

 

The good news is that the economic picture is mostly bright – the sun is still shining.

 

好消息是，目前的经济形势基本良好，也就是说，天气依然晴朗。

 

We see global momentum – driven by stronger investment, a rebound in trade, and favorable financial conditions – which is encouraging companies and households to increase their spending.

 

我们认为，全球势头的发展来源于投资力度加大、贸易回暖以及金融状况有利这三方面因素的推动，这些因素鼓励着公司和家庭增加支出。

 

That is why the IMF in January projected 3.9 percent global growth for 2018 and 2019, and as you will see from our forecast next week, we continue to be optimistic.

 

这就是为什么基金组织在1月份会预测2018年和2019年全球经济增长率为3.9%，以及为什么我们仍然对经济增长的前景持乐观态度——关于这一点，大家下周可以从我们预测中看出来。

 

Advanced economies are expected to grow above their medium-term potential this year and next. In Europe, for example, the upswing is now more widely spread across the region.

 

发达经济体今明两年的增长有望超越其中期潜在水平。以欧洲为例，其目前经济回升的地域范围已进一步扩大。

 

The United States is already at full employment, and growth will likely accelerate further due to expansionary fiscal policy.

 

美国已经实现了充分就业，此外，由于实施了扩张性财政政策，经济增长可能进一步加快。

 

Meanwhile, here in Asia the outlook remains bright – which is good for everyone, because this region contributes close to two-thirds of global growth.

 

与此同时，亚洲的前景依旧光明——这对每个人来说都是好事，因为这一地区对全球经济增长的贡献份额接近三分之二。

 

Japan’s economy continues to grow strongly, and Asian emerging markets – led by China and India – are driven by rising exports and higher domestic consumption.

 

日本经济继续保持强劲增长，而以中国和印度为首的亚洲新兴市场的经济也得益于出口的不断增加和国内消费的扩大。

 

Challenges remain in some other emerging and developing countries – including in sub-Saharan Africa – though commodity exporters are experiencing a modest upswing.

 

尽管其他一些新兴市场和发展中国家（包括撒哈拉以南非洲的此类国家）仍然面临挑战，但是大宗商品出口国正经历着经济小幅回升的过程。

 

So yes, the current global picture is bright.

 

因此，当前的全球形势确实有利。

 

But we can see darker clouds looming.

 

但是，我们可以看到，乌云已隐隐出现。

 

The reality is that the momentum expected for 2018 and 2019 will eventually slow.

 

实际上，2018年和2019年的预期发展势头最终将会放缓。

 

It will slow because of fading fiscal stimulus, including in the U.S. and China; and because of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions as major central banks normalize monetary policy.

 

放缓的原因在于财政刺激、包括美国和中国的财政刺激正在逐步消退；还因为主要央行推进货币政策正常化而导致利率不断上升，金融状况进一步收紧。

 

Add to this the issue of aging populations and weak productivity, and you have a challenging medium-term outlook, especially in the advanced world.

 

此外，在人口老龄化、生产率增长乏力的背景下，中期前景，尤其是对发达国家而言极具挑战性。

 

What can policymakers do? I see three priorities that can make a difference.

 

政策制定者们怎么办？我认为，有三大当务之急能够产生重要影响。

 

Three priorities for the global economy

 

全球经济的三大当务之急

 

1. Steer clear of protectionism

 

1.远离保护主义

 

First – governments need to steer clear of protectionism in all its forms.

 

首先，各国政府必须远离任何形式的保护主义。

 

History shows that import restrictions hurt everyone, especially poorer consumers.

 

历史表明，实施进口限制措施会损及所有人，尤其是较贫穷的消费者。

 

Not only do they lead to more expensive products and more limited choices, but they also prevent trade from playing its essential role in boosting productivity and spreading new technologies. ^[1]

 

这些限制措施不仅会导致产品价格升高、选择余地缩小，而且还会阻碍贸易在促进生产率以及传播新技术方面发挥不可或缺的作用。^[1]

 

As a result, even protected industries eventually suffer as they become less dynamic than their foreign competitors.

 

结果，甚至连被保护的产业到头来也会因其相较外国竞争者动力减弱而蒙受损失。

 

And yet, discussions about trade restrictions are often bound up with the concept of trade deficits and surpluses. Some people argue that these imbalances indicate unfair trade practices.

 

然而，关于贸易限制措施的讨论往往与对贸易逆差和顺差的看法息息相关。有些人坚称，出现此类失衡即表明存在不公平的贸易做法。

 

Yes, there are unfair practices – which must be eliminated – and which can leave their mark on trade balances between two countries.

 

不错，目前确实存在不公平的做法，必须予以消除；这些做法可能会对两个国家之间的贸易差额产生不良影响。

 

But in general, these bilateral imbalances are a snapshot of the division of labor across economies, including global value chains.

 

但是总的说来，这些双边失衡是不同经济体之间劳动力分工、包括全球价值链的掠影。

 

For example, a country that focuses on assembling smartphones will tend to have bilateral trade deficits with countries that produce the components, and surpluses with countries that buy the finished devices.

 

举例来说，重点负责组装智能手机的国家相对于制造零部件的国家往往会出现双边贸易逆差，而相对于购买成品设备的国家则往往会出现贸易顺差。

 

More importantly, unfair trade practices have little impact on a country’s overall trade deficit with the rest of the world. That imbalance is driven by the fact that a country spends above its income.

 

更重要的是，不公平的贸易做法对一个国家相对世界其他地方的总贸易逆差几乎没有影响。因为失衡状况的出现的原因是一国的支出超过了其收入。

 

The best way to address these macroeconomic imbalances is not to impose tariffs, but to use policies that affect the economy as a whole, such as fiscal tools or structural reforms.

 

解决此类宏观经济失衡的最佳方式并非开征关税，而是利用能够影响整体经济的各项政策，比如，财政工具或结构改革。

 

The United States, for example, could help tackle excessive global imbalances by curbing gradually the dynamics of public spending and by increasing revenue – which would help reduce future fiscal deficits.

 

例如，为了帮助解决过度的全球失衡问题，美国可以逐步抑制公共支出的增长并增加财政收入——这有助于减少未来的财政赤字。

 

Germany, which is facing an aging population, could use its excess savings to boost its growth potential – including through investments in physical and digital infrastructure.

 

德国面临着人口老龄化的问题，它可以利用过高的储蓄来提高经济增长潜力——包括对实体和数字化基础设施进行投资。

 

So, what can policymakers do about unfair practices?

 

那么，政策制定者如何应对种种不公平的贸易做法呢？

 

Each country has a responsibility to improve the trade system by looking at its own practices and by committing to a level playing field where everyone follows the rules.

 

各国有义务改善贸易体系，一方面审视自身的做法，另一方面致力于创建一种公平竞争的环境，身处其中的所有人都要遵守相关规则。

 

This includes better protecting intellectual property, and reducing the distortions of policies that favor state enterprises. It also means trading by the rules – the WTO rules that all 164 members agreed upon.

 

这包括更好地保护知识产权以及减少偏向国有企业的政策扭曲。它还意味着在贸易过程中遵循规则，即164个成员国全体协商一致的世贸组织规则。

 

We can all do more – but we cannot do it alone.

 

我们每个人都可以做得更多——但是，我们不能自行其是。

 

Remember: the multilateral trade system has transformed our world over the past generation. It helped reduce by half the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty. ^[2] It has reduced the cost of living, and has created millions of new jobs with higher wages.

 

须谨记：在过去的一个世代，多边贸易体系已经改变了我们的世界。它促使全球的极端贫困人口数量减少了一半。^[2]它降低了生活成本，还创造了数百万薪酬更高的全新就业岗位。

 

But that system of rules and shared responsibility is now in danger of being torn apart. This would be an inexcusable, collective policy failure.

 

可是现在，这一规则及共同责任体系却面临着分崩离析的危险。如果这一危险成为现实，那将是一项不可原谅的集体性政策失败。

 

So let us redouble our efforts to reduce trade barriers and resolve disagreements without using exceptional measures.

 

因此，让我们加倍努力，减少贸易壁垒，并通过非常措施以外的途径消除意见分歧。

 

Let us work together to build on forward-looking trade initiatives, including the recent agreement between Japan and the European Union, the new African Continental Free Trade Area, and the so-called TPP-11.

 

让我们携手合作以推进各项前瞻性贸易举措和安排，包括最近日本与欧洲联盟达成的协定、新建立的非洲大陆自由贸易区，以及被称为“TPP-11”的新版《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》。

 

And let us also ensure that policies help those affected by dislocations, whether from trade or technological advances. Consider the benefits of scaling up investment in training and social safety nets – so that workers can upgrade their skills and transition to higher-quality jobs.

 

此外，让我们确保各项政策为因贸易或技术进步而下岗的人们提供帮助。考虑扩大培训和社会保障体系方面投资的益处，以便工人提高自身技能并转投更高质量的就业岗位。

 

In all these efforts, we at the IMF are supporting our members through analysis and advice and by offering a platform for dialogue and cooperation.

 

以上种种，基金组织将通过分析和建议以及提供对话与合作平台的方式对成员国给予支持。

 

This is what we were set up to do. Our experience over more than seven decades shows that when countries work together, global challenges become more manageable.

 

这正是基金组织成立的初衷。回望我们走过的七十多年历程可以发现：一旦各个国家戮力同心、携手合作，各种全球挑战都会变得更容易应对。

 

We need that spirit of cooperation to avoid protectionism – and to sustain the global upswing.

 

我们必须建立合作精神以防止保护主义——以及维持全球经济回升的态势。

 

2. Guard against fiscal and financial risk

 

2.防范财政和金融风险

 

We also need to guard against fiscal and financial risks. This is my second priority.

 

我们还需要防范财政和金融风险。这是我要说的第二大当务之急。

 

Here, numbers tell the story.

 

就这一点而言，数字能够说明问题。

 

New IMF analysis ^[3] shows that, after a decade of easy financial conditions, global debt – both public and private – has reached an all-time high of $164 trillion.

 

基金组织的新分析^[3]表明，历经十年宽松的金融环境之后，全球公共和私人债务上升到了历史最高水平——164万亿美元。

 

Compared to its 2007 level, this debt is now 40 percent higher, with China alone accounting for just over 40 percent of that increase.

 

目前的全球债务水平比2007年的水平高40%，而中国独占这一增长中40%以上的份额。

 

A major driver of this buildup is the private sector, which makes up two thirds of the total debt level. But that is not the whole story.

 

债务累积的一项主要驱动力来源于私人部门，该部门债务占债务总量的三分之二。但这不是问题的全部。

 

Public debt in advanced economies is at levels ^[4] not seen since the Second World War. And if recent trends continue, many low-income countries will face unsustainable debt burdens.

 

发达经济体的公共债务达到了第二次世界大战以来前所未有的高水平^[4]。如果近期趋势不变，那么许多低收入国家将会面临不可持续的债务负担。

 

High debt in low-income countries could jeopardize development goals as governments spend more on debt service and less on infrastructure, health, and education.

 

低收入国家债务高企的状况可能会损害各项发展目标，因为这些国家的政府不得不将更多资金用作偿债，同时压缩基础设施、医疗保健和教育方面的支出。

 

The bottom line is that high debt burdens have left governments, companies, and households more vulnerable to a sudden tightening of financial conditions. This potential shift could prompt market corrections, debt sustainability concerns, and capital flow reversals in emerging markets.

 

最重要的是，高额的债务负担导致政府、公司和家庭更容易受到突如其来的金融状况收紧的冲击。这种潜在的转变可能会在新兴市场引发市场回调、债务可持续性问题以及资本流动逆转。

 

So, we must use the current window of opportunity to prepare for the challenges ahead.

 

因此，我们必须利用目前的机会之窗为应对未来挑战做好准备。

 

This is about creating more room to act when the next downturn inevitably comes – or as the economists like to say, it is about “building policy buffers.”

 

这就涉及开拓更大空间，以便在下一轮经济衰退不可避免地到来时采取行动——或者用经济学家喜欢挂在嘴边的那句话来说，就是需要“建立政策缓冲”。

 

What does that mean specifically?

 

它的具体含义是什么呢？

 

For many economies, it means reducing government deficits, strengthening fiscal frameworks, and placing public debt on a gradual downward path. This should be done in a growth-friendly way through more efficient spending and progressive taxation.

 

对多数经济体来说，它意味着减少政府赤字，巩固财政框架，以及将公共债务推入逐步下降的轨道。为此，应当寻求一种有利于经济增长的途径，包括提高支出效率和采用累进税制。

 

It also calls for more exchange rate flexibility to cope with volatile capital flows, especially in emerging and developing countries.

 

此外，还要求提高汇率灵活性，以应对波动起伏的资本流动，尤其是在新兴市场和发展中国家。

 

These efforts help reduce the severity and duration of recessions.

 

这些工作有助于降低经济衰退的严重程度并缩短其持续时间。

 

For example, a recent study ^[5] shows that the decline in output after a financial crisis is less than 1 percent in a country with adequate fiscal and monetary buffers, but almost 10 percent in a country with no buffers.

 

例如，最近一项研究^[5]显示，经济危机过后，具备足够财政和货币缓冲的国家产出下降幅度低于1%，而无缓冲的国家下降幅度接近10%。

 

So, using macroeconomic tools is critical. But it is not enough.

 

所以说，利用宏观经济工具极为重要。但是这还不够。

 

Strengthening financial stability by increasing buffers in corporate and banking sectors is key, especially in large emerging markets such as China and India.

 

关键在于通过增加企业和银行业部门缓冲的方式，加强金融稳定性，尤其是在中国和印度等大型新兴市场国家。

 

This means reducing corporate debt and bolstering bank capital and liquidity where needed. It also means implementing policies to address booming housing markets, including here in Hong Kong.

 

这意味着在必要时减少企业债务，以及充实银行资本并提高流动性。它还意味着落实各项政策以顺应房地产市场的蓬勃发展，香港情况亦然。

 

New IMF analysis ^[6] shows that housing markets in major cities across the world are increasingly moving in tandem – which could amplify the financial and macroeconomic shocks coming from any one country.

 

基金组织的最新分析^[6]表明，世界各主要城市的房地产市场发展步调日趋一致——这有可能会放大源于任何一个国家的金融和宏观经济冲击。

 

That is why we need global buffers as well.

 

这同样也是我们需要全球缓冲的原因所在。

 

For one thing, we must keep our financial systems safe by avoiding a rollback of the regulatory framework put in place since the global financial crisis to boost capital and liquidity buffers.

 

其一，我们必须保障金融体系的安全，防止自全球金融危机以来设立至今的监管框架出现倒退，以增加资本和流动性缓冲。

 

And the international regulatory framework needs to keep pace with the rapidly evolving fintech landscape to head off new risks while harnessing the potential.

 

其二，国际监管框架必须与快速发展变化的金融科技格局保持同步以阻止新的风险出现，同时发挥金融科技的潜能。

 

Most importantly, we want a strong global financial safety net. Here the IMF plays a central role in helping countries to better cope with capital flow volatility in times of distress.

 

更重要的是，我们需要建立一个更为强大的全球金融安全网。基金组织在这方面发挥着核心作用，可以帮助各国在经济衰退时期更好地应对资本流动的上下波动。

 

Together these policy actions will help sustain the current upswing.

 

所有这些政策行动结合在一起，可有助于维持当前的经济回升态势。

 

But it is also essential to foster longer-term growth that is more sustainable and more widely shared. That is my third priority.

 

但是，促进更具可持续性且惠及更广范围的长期经济增长也至为关键。这就是我所说的第三大当务之急。