3. Foster long-term growth that benefits everyone

 

3.促进长期经济增长以造福于所有人

 

Fostering stronger and more inclusive growth is a key challenge.

 

促进更为强劲、更具包容性的经济增长是一项关键性挑战。

 

If, as projected, advanced economies return to disappointing medium-term growth, this would worsen economic inequality, debt concerns, and political polarization.

 

如果像预期的那样，发达经济体退回到令人失望的中期经济增长水平，那么经济不平等、债务问题和政治极化的状况都会随之恶化。

 

At the same time, more than 40 emerging and developing countries are projected to grow more slowly in per capita terms than advanced economies.

 

与此同时，预计40多个新兴和发展中国家人均GDP增长将慢于发达经济体。

 

This means slower improvements in living standards and a widening income gap between those countries and the advanced world.

 

也就是说，此类国家的生活水平提升速度较慢，而且与发达世界之间的收入差距不断拉大。

 

As I said earlier, the window of opportunity is open. But to boost productivity and potential growth, countries need to step up economic reforms and policy actions.

 

正如我先前所说，机会之窗尚存。不过，要想促进生产率和潜在经济增长，各国必须加大经济改革和政策行动的力度。

 

Let me touch on two potential game-changers:

 

我想谈一谈或许能够扭转乾坤的两个因素：

 

First, unlock the potential of the service sector, especially in developing economies.

 

第一个潜在因素是释放服务业部门、尤其是发展中经济体服务业部门的潜能。

 

In moving from an agriculture-based to a service-based economy, many of these countries are bypassing a traditional industrialization phase.

 

这些国家多半是从以农业为基础的经济转向以服务业为基础的经济，而绕过了传统的工业化阶段。

 

This raises concerns that countries could get stuck at lower-productivity levels, with little chance of catching up to advanced economy incomes.

 

这一趋势使人担心这些国家会始终徘徊在低生产率水平，而难有机会在收入方面赶上发达经济体。

 

Our latest research ^[7] shows, however, that some service sectors – led by transportation, communications, and business services – can match the productivity levels of manufacturing.

 

可是，我们的最新研究^[7]显示，以运输、通信和商业服务为代表的一些服务业部门能够达到制造业的生产率水平。

 

This is critical for countries such as the Philippines, Colombia, and Ghana where employment and output are shifting from agricultural production to higher-value services.

 

这一点对于菲律宾、哥伦比亚和加纳等国家而言至关重要，因为这些国家的就业和产出正在从农业生产转向更高价值的服务业。

 

It is also important for the economic wellbeing of millions of women, who often account for the majority of service industry workers.

 

这一点对于数百万妇女的经济福祉同样重要，因为在服务行业的工人队伍中，女性往往占多数。

 

Unlocking this potential is not an easy task. It requires more public investment in education, training, and job-search assistance. It also means opening service sectors to more competition.

 

释放这一潜能并非易事。它需要在教育、培训以及求职协助方面进行更多的公共投资。它还意味着进一步开放服务业部门，以引入更多竞争。

 

At the global level, there is work to be done as well. We need to increase trade in services, including e-commerce, by reducing barriers in this area – which are still extremely high.

 

在全球层面也需要开展工作。我们必须减少服务业、包括电子商务领域眼下仍然极高的贸易壁垒，从而增加这一领域的贸易。

 

The second potential game-changer is the digital transformation of government. ^[8]

 

第二个潜在因素是政府的数字化转型。^[8]

 

When it comes to cutting-edge technologies and systems, public sectors can lead the way – and we are seeing great examples here in Asia:

 

在尖端技术和制度领域，公共部门能够起到带头作用——我们正目睹亚洲出现一系列杰出实例：

 

In India, citizens receive subsidies and welfare payments directly into their bank accounts, which are linked to unique biometric identifiers.

 

印度将公民享受的补贴和福利款项直接付至公民的银行账户中，这些银行账户又关联着独一无二的生物识别特征。

 

In Australia, tax authorities collect information on wages in real time, which gives them immediate insight into the state of the economy.

 

澳大利亚税收机关实时收集工资信息，从而能够立即洞悉经济状况。

 

And here in Hong Kong, bank customers will soon be able to use their mobile phone numbers and email addresses to transfer money or make retail purchases, thanks to a new, government-funded payment system. ^[9]

 

在香港，银行客户很快就能使用手机号码和电子邮件地址进行汇款转账或零售购买，这要归功于政府主导的新支付系统。^[9]

 

These initiatives are just the beginning. Governments across the world are now also looking at ways of generating efficiency gains.

 

这些举措还处于起步阶段。此外，世界各国政府都在研究提升效率的途径。

 

For example, one recent study ^[10] estimates that almost 20 percent of public revenues worldwide, or about $5 trillion, go missing each year, because of tax noncompliance and misdirected government payments.

 

例如，最近一项研究^[10]估计，每年全球有将近20%的公共财政收入（大约5万亿美元）因税收不合规以及政府支付方向有误而不知所踪。

 

By using new tools – such as big data analysis – governments can reduce these leakages, which are often directly related to corruption and tax evasion. Reducing leakages would enable countries to increase priority spending.

 

通过使用各种新工具——包括大数据分析，各国政府能够减少此类收入流失——它们往往与腐败和偷税漏税直接相关。通过减少收入流失，各国将得以增加重点支出。

 

The bottom line is that digital government can deliver public services more efficiently and more effectively, and help improve people’s lives. ^[11]

 

最重要的是，数字政府能够更有效且更高效地提供公共服务，并帮助改善人们的生活。^[11]

 

Think about it: more households in developing countries now have access to digital technology – such as the internet and smartphones – than have access to clean water and secondary education. ^[12]

 

不妨回想一下，发展中国家如今享有数字技术（例如，互联网和智能手机）的家庭数量已经超过了享有清洁水和中等教育的家庭数量。^[12]

 

What huge potential for digital interaction! But also, what a reminder that we need to leverage technology effectively to make broader development progress.                                 

 

数字互动的潜能何其巨大！与此同时，它又多么适时地提醒我们必须有效利用技术，以实现更广泛的发展！

 

Conclusion

 

结语

 

Let me conclude. This generation of policymakers is facing a stark choice:

 

最后我要说的是，这一代今政策制定者正面临着艰巨的选择：

 

They can simply copy the policies of the past, which have delivered mixed results – raising living standards substantially, but leaving too many behind.

 

他们可以简单照搬前人制定的政策，不过这些政策有利有弊——虽然极大地提高了生活水平，但是却让太多人掉队落后。

 

Or they can paint a new economic landscape – where open trade is fairer and more collaborative; where financial systems are safer and more supportive of economic growth; and where the digital revolution benefits not just the fortunate few but all people.

 

他们也可以绘制新的经济格局，在新的格局下，贸易因开放而更加公平、更具合作性；金融体系更加安全、更能扶持经济增长；数字革命并非仅仅造福于少数个人，而是造福于全人类。

 

As the great artist Henri Matisse once said: “Creativity takes courage.”

 

伟大的艺术家亨利·马蒂斯曾经说过：“创造力需要勇气。”

 

We certainly need more courage – in the halls of government, in company conference rooms, and in our hearts and minds.

 

于我们而言，无论是在政府大厅运筹帷幄，或是在公司会议室出谋划策，还是在我们的内心和思想中破旧立新，无疑都需要具备更多的勇气。

 

Thank you.

 

谢谢大家！

 

[1] April 2018 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4.

 

[1]2018年4月《世界经济展望》，第四章。

 

[2] From 1990-2010. World Bank figures: World Development Indicators.

 

[2]1990年至2010年。世界银行数字：世界发展指标。

 

[3] April 2018 Fiscal Monitor, Chapter 1; global debt of $164 trillion in 2016.

 

[3]2018年4月《财政监测报告》，第一章；2016年全球债务为164万亿美元。

 

[4] In advanced economies, public debt as a proportion of GDP was at 105 percent on average in 2017.

 

[4]2017年发达经济体公共债务平均占GDP的105%。

 

[5] Romer, C. D., and D. H. Romer. 2018. “Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises.” Economica 85 (337): 1–40.

 

[5]Romer,C. D.和D. H. Romer，2018年，“菲利普斯讲座——某些时代为何不同：宏观经济政策和金融危机余波”，《经济学刊》85（337）期：第1-40页。

 

[6] April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report, Chapter 3.

 

[6]2018年4月《全球金融稳定报告》，第三章。

 

[7] April 2018 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3.

 

[7]2018年4月《世界经济展望》，第三章。

 

[8] April 2018 Fiscal Monitor, Chapter 2.

 

[8]2018年4月《财政监测报告》，第二章。

 

[9] The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is creating a so-called Faster Payment System, to be launched in September 2018.

 

[9]香港金融管理局正在创建“快速支付系统”，将于2018年9月推出。

 

[10] McKinsey research.

 

[10] 麦肯锡公司研究。

 

[11] Gupta, Sanjeev, Michael Keen, Alpa Shah, and Geneviève Verdier, Digital Revolutions in Public Finance, International Monetary Fund, 2017.

 

[11]Gupta、Sanjeev、Michael Keen、Alpa Shah和Geneviève Verdier，《公共财政领域的数字革命》，国际货币基金组织，2017年。

 

[12] World Bank data.

 

[12]世界银行数据。

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