Business in America: The Problem with Profits

美国商业：利润问题

 

Big firms in the United States have never had it so good. Time for more competition

美国大公司从未有过如此好的光景。是时候多些竞争了

 

America used to be the land of opportunity and optimism. Now opportunity is seen as the preserve of the elite: two-thirds of Americans believe the economy is rigged in favour of vested interests. And optimism has turned to anger. Voters’ fury fuels the insurgencies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders and weakens insiders like Hillary Clinton.

 

美国曾经是充满机会与乐观主义的土地。现在机会则被视为精英们的保留地：三分之二的美国人相信有人在幕后操控经济以偏向既得利益者。乐观主义已转变成愤怒。选民的暴怒助长了唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）和伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的反叛，并削弱了希拉里这样的圈内人士。

 

The campaigns have found plenty of things to blame, from free-trade deals to the recklessness of Wall Street. But one problem with American capitalism has been overlooked: a corrosive lack of competition. The naughty secret of American firms is that life at home is much easier: their returns on equity are 40% higher in the United States than they are abroad. Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP. America is meant to be a temple of free enterprise. It isn’t.

 

选战已经发掘出许多可被指责的问题，从自由贸易协定到华尔街的轻率鲁莽。但是美国资本主义的一个问题却被忽略了：腐蚀性地缺乏竞争。美国公司顽皮的小秘密便是它们在本国的日子要好过得多：其股本收益率在美国国内比在国外高出40%。累计国内利润占GDP比例已接近历史最高水平。美国本应是自由企业的神殿，而实则不然。

 

Borne by the USA

由美国承受

 

High profits might be a sign of brilliant innovations or wise long-term investments, were it not for the fact that they are also suspiciously persistent. A very profitable American firm has an 80% chance of being that way ten years later. In the 1990s the odds were only about 50%. Some companies are capable of sustained excellence, but most would expect to see their profits competed away. Today, incumbents find it easier to make hay for longer.

 

如果不是如此持久而令人生疑，高利润本可能是杰出创新或者明智长期投资的表现。目前，一家获利非常丰厚的公司在十年后仍能一如既往的可能性为80%，而在上世纪90年代这种概率仅为50%左右。有些公司能够保持卓越，但大部分公司预期自己的利润会因竞争而减少。今天，既有企业发现自己更容易长久地保持高利润。

 

You might think that voters would be happy that their employers are thriving. But if they are not reinvested, or spent by shareholders, high profits can dampen demand. The excess cash generated domestically by American firms beyond their investment budgets is running at $800 billion a year, or 4% of GDP. The tax system encourages them to park foreign profits abroad. Abnormally high profits can worsen inequality if they are the result of persistently high prices or depressed wages. Were America’s firms to cut prices so that their profits were at historically normal levels, consumers’ bills might be 2% lower. If steep earnings are not luring in new entrants, that may mean that firms are abusing monopoly positions, or using lobbying to stifle competition. The game may indeed be rigged.

 

你或许认为选民们会因为自己的雇主兴旺发达而欢天喜地，但如果利润不用于再投资，或者被股东消费，高利润反而会抑制需求。美国公司在国内产生的超出其投资预算的富余现金已达每年八千亿美元，相当于GDP的4%。税收机制鼓励它们把海外利润留在国外。不正常的高利润如果是价格持续走高或者工资低迷的结果，则会恶化不平等状况。如果美国公司降低价格，让它们的利润降至历史正常水平，那么消费者的账单可能会降低2%。如果高昂的收益没有吸引到新来者加入，那也许意味着各公司在滥用垄断地位，或是利用游说扼杀竞争。游戏的确可能被人操控了。

 

One response to the age of hyper-profitability would be simply to wait. Creative destruction takes time: previous episodes of peak profits – for example, in the late 1960s – ended abruptly. Silicon Valley’s evangelicals believe that a new era of big data, blockchains and robots is about to munch away the fat margins of corporate America. In the past six months the earnings of listed firms have dipped a little, as cheap oil has hit energy firms and a strong dollar has hurt multinationals.

 

面对超高利润率时代，应对的方法之一就是耐心等待。创造性破坏需要时间：之前的利润高峰时期，比如上世纪60年代后期，都戛然而止。硅谷的狂热信徒相信大数据、区块链和机器人的新时代即将吃掉美国企业的丰厚利润。过去六个月上市公司的盈利略降，因为低油价打击了能源公司，而强劲的美元使得跨国公司受损。

 

Unfortunately the signs are that incumbent firms are becoming more entrenched, not less. Microsoft is making double the profits it did when antitrust regulators targeted the software firm in 2000. Our analysis of census data suggests that two-thirds of the economy’s 900-odd industries have become more concentrated since 1997. A tenth of the economy is at the mercy of a handful of firms – from dog food and batteries to airlines, telecoms and credit cards. A $10 trillion wave of mergers since 2008 has raised levels of concentration further. American firms involved in such deals have promised to cut costs by $150 billion or more, which would add a tenth to overall profits. Few plan to pass the gains on to consumers.

 

不幸的是，有迹象显示既有企业正变得更加根深蒂固，而不是更易遭到动摇。与2000年反垄断机构盯上微软时相比，这家软件公司现在的利润是当时的两倍。我们对普查数据的分析表明，自1997年以来，美国900多个行业中有三分之二变得更为集中。少数公司控制了美国经济的十分之一，从狗粮、电池到航空、电信与信用卡。从2008年掀起的10万亿美元的并购浪潮更进一步提升了集中度。涉及这些交易的美国公司已承诺削减1500亿美元乃至更多的成本，这将使整体利润增加十分之一。然而鲜有公司计划将这些收益让渡给消费者。

 

Getting bigger is not the only way to squish competitors. As the mesh of regulation has got denser since the 2007-08 financial crisis, the task of navigating bureaucratic waters has become more central to firms’ success. Lobbying spending has risen by a third in the past decade, to $3 billion. A mastery of patent rules has become essential in health care and technology, America’s two most profitable industries. And new regulations do not just fence big banks in: they keep rivals out.

 

扩大规模并不是挤压竞争者的唯一方法。从2007到2008年的金融危机以来，监管之网越收越紧，能够在官僚体系中纵横捭阖对公司的成功已更为关键。过去十年里，游说支出增长了三分之一，达到30亿美元。在医疗和科技这两大美国最赚钱的行业里，对专利规则的精通已变得至关重要。新的规则不仅仅为大型银行加上了准入门槛，也将竞争对手拒之门外。

 

Having limited working capital and fewer resources, small companies struggle with all the forms, lobbying and red tape. This is one reason why the rate of small-company creation in America has been running at its lowest levels since the 1970s. The ability of large firms to enter new markets and take on lazy incumbents has been muted by an orthodoxy among institutional investors that companies should focus on one activity and keep margins high. Warren Buffett, an investor, says he likes companies with “moats” that protect them from competition. America Inc has dug a giant defensive ditch around itself.

 

营运资本有限，又缺乏资源，小公司在各种表格、游说和官僚操作中苦苦挣扎。上世纪70年代以来，美国小公司创建的比率已经降到了最低点，以上即是原因之一。机构投资者信奉这样的正统观念：公司应当专注于一项活动，保持高利润。这抑制了大公司进入新市场并挑战既有企业。巴菲特说，他喜欢拥有“护城河”来保护自己免于竞争的公司。美国（公司）已经为自己挖了一条巨大的护城河。

 

Most of the remedies dangled by politicians to solve America’s economic woes would make things worse. Higher taxes would deter investment. Jumps in minimum wages would discourage hiring. Protectionism would give yet more shelter to dominant firms. Better to unleash a wave of competition.

 

在政客拿出的解决美国经济困境的措施里，大部分都只会让情况变得更糟。提高税收会抑制投资。调高最低工资会限制雇用。贸易保护主义会给国内企业更多的庇护。而更好的方法是发起一波竞争浪潮。

 

The first step is to take aim at cosseted incumbents. Modernising the antitrust apparatus would help. Mergers that lead to high market share and too much pricing power still need to be policed. But firms can extract rents in many ways. Copyright and patent laws should be loosened to prevent incumbents milking old discoveries. Big tech platforms such as Google and Facebook need to be watched closely: they might not be rent-extracting monopolies yet, but investors value them as if they will be one day. The role of giant fund managers with crossholdings in rival firms needs careful examination, too.

 

第一步是要把矛头朝向备受宠溺的既有企业。让反垄断机制与时俱进会有帮助。制造高市场份额和过强定价权的并购案仍需要监督。但公司有很多方法抽租。应当放宽版权法和专利法，防止既有企业从老旧的发明中榨取利润。像谷歌和Facebook这类大型科技平台需要密切注意：它们可能还没有成为抽租的垄断企业，但投资者对它们的估值则是基于它们有朝一日会成为那类公司。在对手企业间交叉持股的大型基金公司也需要小心审视。

 

Set them free

让它们自由

 

The second step is to make life easier for startups and small firms. Concerns about the expansion of red tape and of the regulatory state must be recognised as a problem, not dismissed as the mad rambling of anti-government Tea Partiers. The burden placed on small firms by laws like Obamacare has been material. The rules shackling banks have led them to cut back on serving less profitable smaller customers. The pernicious spread of occupational licensing has stifled startups. Some 29% of professions, including hairstylists and most medical workers, require permits, up from 5% in the 1950s.

 

第二步是要让创业企业和小公司日子更好过一些。对官僚程序和管制型政府扩张的担忧必须被正视为问题，不能将其当作反政府茶党的胡言乱语而嗤之以鼻。如奥巴马医改这样的法律已经给小企业加上了沉重的负担。限制银行的法规促使它们减少了对盈利较少的小型客户的服务。职业注册制度的恶性扩张阻碍了创业。约有29%的职业需要许可，包括发型师和大多数医护职位，而上世纪50年代这一比例仅为5%。

 

A blast of competition would mean more disruption for some: firms in the S&P 500 employ about one in ten Americans. But it would create new jobs, encourage more investment and help lower prices. Above all, it would bring about a fairer kind of capitalism. That would lift Americans’ spirits as well as their economy.

 

竞争之风将颠覆一些公司：雇用了约10%美国人的标普500企业。但它也将创造新工作，鼓励更多投资，并帮助拉低价格。尤其重要的是，它将带来一种更公平的资本主义。这将振奋美国人的精神，并复兴美国的经济。

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