The World Economy: Who’s Afraid of Cheap Oil?

世界经济：谁害怕廉价石油？

 

Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again

走低的能源价格应该是经济的一剂强心针。但请三思

 

Along with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.

 

和银行挤兑及股市崩盘一样，石油危机具有释放猛兽的罕见力量。1973年阿拉伯石油禁运事件发生后，人们已经认识到，油价突然飙升会引发经济浩劫。相反，当油价因供给过剩而暴跌——就像1986年所发生的那样——则给世界带来了有益的影响。经验法则是油价每下跌10%，经济增长就会提升0.1到0.5个百分点。

 

In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.

 

过去18个月油价已经下跌了75%，从每桶110美元跌至不到27美元。不过这一次，它的好处却没那么确定。虽然消费者已从中获益，但生产商受损严重。其影响正蔓延到金融市场，继而可能令消费者信心下挫。超低油价带来的好处可能仍然会超过所付出的代价，然而市场下跌之多之快，即使连这一点也已不再确定。

 

The new economics of oil

新石油经济学

 

The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d.

 

世界快要溺毙在滚滚的石油之中。沙特阿拉伯正以接近满负荷开采石油。普遍认为，沙特人想把成本较高的生产商驱逐出石油业，包括一部分美国的页岩油生产商，后者将美国的石油产量从2008年的每天五百万桶增加到如今的九百多万桶。沙特阿拉伯同时也将准备好承受巨大的痛苦来挫败死敌伊朗。伊朗核协议达成后经济制裁被撤销，准备于本周重新加入石油市场，日产量可能达到三百万至四百万桶。

 

Despite the Saudis’ efforts, however, producers have proved resilient. Many frackers have eked out efficiencies. They hate the idea of plugging their wells only for the wildcatter on the next block to reap the reward when prices rebound. They will not pack up so long as prices cover day-to-day costs, in some cases as low as $15 a barrel. Meanwhile oil stocks in the mostly rich-country OECD in October stood at 267 days’ net imports, almost 50% higher than five years earlier. They will continue to grow, especially if demand slows by more than expected in China and the rest of Asia. Forecasting the oil price is a mug’s game (as the newspaper that once speculated about $5 oil, we speak from experience), but few expect it to start rising before 2017. Today’s price could mark the bottom of the barrel. Some are predicting a trough of as low as $10.

 

尽管沙特如此费力挤压，生产商却显现出了韧性。许多页岩油生产商竭力提升了效率。他们不愿封上油井，让隔壁的石油投机商在油价反弹时大赚一笔。只要价格尚能应付日常营运开支——就一些企业而言可以低至15美元一桶——他们就不会打包走人。与此同时，富裕国家俱乐部经合组织10月的石油储备已达到267天的净进口量，比五年前增加了近50%。这些储备还会继续增加，尤其如果中国和亚洲其他地区需求放缓超出预期的话。预测油价是一种徒劳的游戏（以经验之谈而言，本刊就曾推测过约5美元的油价），但没人预期它会在2017年前开始反弹。今天的价格可能标志触底，但也有一些人预测会跌至10美元一桶的谷底。

 

The lower the better, you might say. Look at how cheap oil has boosted importers, from Europe to South Asia. The euro area’s oil-import bill has fallen by 2% of GDP since mid-2014. India has become the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

 

你可能会说，越低越好。看看廉价石油如何提振了从欧洲到南亚的石油进口国。欧元区的石油进口支出自2014年中以来已经减少了相当于GDP的2%。印度已成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。

 

Yet the latest lurch down is also a source of anxiety. Collapsing revenues could bring political instability to fragile parts of the world, such as Venezuela and the Gulf, and fuel rivalries in the Middle East. Cheap oil has a green lining, as it drags down the global price of natural gas, which crowds out coal, a dirtier fuel. But in the long run, cheap fossil fuels reduce the incentive to act on climate change. Most worrying of all is the corrosive new economics of oil.

 

然而，最近一次油价下跌同样也是忧虑的源头。收入暴跌可能会给世界上脆弱的地区带去政治不稳定性，比如委内瑞拉和海湾地区，并加剧中东地区的冲突。廉价石油有一定的环保效应，因为它拉低了天然气的全球价格，继而会减少煤炭这种更肮脏的燃料的使用。但长期而言，廉价的化石燃料减少了人们对气候变化采取行动的动力。而最让人担忧的是腐蚀性的新石油经济学。

 

In the past cheap oil has buoyed the world economy because consumers spend much more out of one extra dollar in their pocket than producers do. Today that reckoning is less straightforward than it was. American consumers may have been saving more than was expected. Oil producers are tightening their belts, having spent extravagantly when prices were high. After the latest drop in crude prices, Russia announced a 10% cut in public spending. Even Saudi Arabia is slashing its budget to deal with its deficit of 15% of GDP.

 

过去，廉价石油提振了全球经济，这是因为就省下的每一美元而言，消费者花掉的比石油生产商要多得多。今天，这种计算方法不像以前那么简单直接了。美国消费者存下的钱可能多于预期。石油生产商在油价高企时挥霍无度，如今正勒紧腰包。最近一次原油价格下跌后，俄罗斯宣布削减公共开支10%。即使是沙特阿拉伯也在削减预算，以应对高达GDP15%的财政赤字。

 

Cheap oil also hurts demand in more important ways. When crude was over $100 a barrel it made sense to spend on exploration in out-of-the-way provinces, such as the Arctic, west Africa and deep below the saline rock off the coast of Brazil. As prices have tumbled, so has investment. Projects worth $380 billion have been put on hold. In America spending on fixed assets in the oil industry has fallen by half from its peak. The poison has spread: the purchasing managers’ index for December, of 48.2, registered an accelerating contraction across the whole of American manufacturing. In Brazil the harm to Petrobras, the national oil company, from the oil price has been exacerbated by a corruption scandal that has paralysed the highest echelons of government.

 

廉价石油还从更重要的方面挫伤了需求。当原油价格高于每桶100美元时，在北极、西非及巴西近海盐岩深处等偏远地带投资勘探合乎情理。而随着油价大跌，投资也已大减。总额3800亿美元的项目已经搁浅。在美国，花费在石油产业固定资产上的金额已较顶峰时期减少了一半。毒害已经扩散：12月采购经理人指数为48.2，显示美国制造业加速全面萎缩。在巴西，油价对巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）的损害因贪腐丑闻而加剧，这一丑闻已经令巴西政府的最高层陷入瘫痪。

 

The fall in investment and asset prices is all the more harmful because it is so rapid. As oil collapses against the backdrop of a fragile world economy, it could trigger defaults.

 

投资的减少和资产价格的下跌由于发生得太快而更具杀伤力。油价大跌发生在全球经济脆弱之时，这可能会引发违约。

 

The possible financial spillovers are hard to assess. Much of the $650 billion rise in emerging-market corporate debt since 2007 has been in oil and commodity industries. Oil plays a central role in a clutch of emerging markets prone to trouble. With GDP in Russia falling, the government could well face a budgetary crisis within months. Venezuela, where inflation is above 140%, has declared an economic state of emergency.

 

金融市场可能发生的溢出效应很难评估。自2007年以来，新兴市场企业新增的6500亿美元债务大部分产生于石油和大宗商品产业。在那些容易陷入麻烦的新兴市场，石油扮演着核心的角色。俄罗斯的GDP下跌后，该国政府很可能在未来数月内面临一场预算危机。委内瑞拉的通货膨胀超过了140%，已经宣布进入经济紧急状态。

 

Other oil producers are prone to a similar, if milder, cycle of weaker growth, a falling currency, imported inflation and tighter monetary policy. Central banks in Colombia and Mexico raised interest rates in December. Nigeria is rationing dollars in a desperate (probably doomed) effort to boost its currency.

 

其他石油生产国也可能面临类似但较温和些的经济下行周期：增长乏力、货币贬值、输入性通胀，货币政策收紧。哥伦比亚和墨西哥的央行12月都实施了加息。尼日利亚开始限制美元供应，不顾一切地提振本币，结果可能凶多吉少。

 

There are strains in rich countries, too. Yields on corporate high-yield bonds have jumped from about 6.5% in mid-2015 to 9.7% today. Investors’ aversion spread quickly from energy firms to all borrowers. With bears stalking equity markets, global indices are plumbing 30-month lows. Central bankers in rich countries worry that persistent low inflation will feed expectations of static or falling prices – in effect, raising real interest rates. Policymakers’ ability to respond is constrained because rates, close to zero, cannot be cut much more.

 

富裕国家也在受压。企业高收益债券的收益率已从2015年中的约6.5%跃升至目前的9.7%。投资者的避险情绪迅速从能源企业蔓延到所有借贷方。股市熊市近逼，全球股指下挫至30个月低位。富裕国家的央行担心，持续的低通胀将助长价格停滞或下跌的预期，结果将提高实际利率。而政策制定者的应对能力受限，因为利率已经接近零，无法再大幅下调。

 

Make the best of it

尽力做最好

 

The oil-price drop creates vast numbers of winners in India and China. It gives oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela an urgent reason to embrace reform. It offers oil importers, like South Korea, a chance to tear up wasteful energy subsidies – or boost inflation and curb deficits by raising taxes. But this oil shock comes as the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the financial crash. You might think that there could be no better time for a boost. In fact, the world could yet be laid low by an oil monster on the prowl.

 

油价下跌在印度和中国制造了大量的赢家。它给了沙特阿拉伯和委内瑞拉这类高度依赖石油的经济体拥抱改革的紧迫理由。它为诸如韩国这样的石油进口国废除浪费颇多的能源补贴提供了机遇，或者使其可以通过加税来推动通胀并遏制赤字。然而，这场石油危机来临之时，世界经济仍在应对金融危机的余波。你可能认为再没有更好的时机让低油价来提振经济了。但实际上，世界可能会被徘徊觅食的石油猛兽扑倒。

下载：英文、中文版本