China’s Economy Showing Resilience and Potentials amid Headwinds

中国经济的韧性与巨大潜力

Chinese ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran Chang Hua

驻伊朗大使常华

29 July 2022

2022年7月29日

Since the beginning of this year, the increasingly complicated international environment and weakened global economic recovery, as well as sporadic but multiple local outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic caused harsh impacts on China’s economic development. Affected by both domestic and external unfavorable factors, China’s economic performance in the second quarter was less ideal than expected, which has resulted in some negative rhetoric against China’s economy on some media. In this case, I would like to share some views on China’s economy and its prospects:

今年以来，国际形势复杂严峻，世界经济增长放缓态势明显。中国国内疫情多发散发，也对经济稳定运行造成了严重冲击。受国内外双重不利因素影响，中国二季度经济表现不及预期，部分媒体上出现了唱衰中国经济的论调。我想针对中国经济形势和未来发展前景谈几点看法：

First, China’s economy managed to grow in the second quarter despite downward pressure. In the second quarter of this year, the impacts from a new round of COVID flare-ups and other unexpected factors steeply increased the downward pressure on China’s economy, and major economic indicators tumbled in April. However, the Chinese government responded with resolute and swift actions. We put stable growth higher on the agenda, held ground against a massive stimulus, worked to front-load the policies set, and introduced and implemented a policy package for stabilizing the economy. The effects emerged immediately. In May, the decline in major economic indicators slowed. In June, the economy stabilized and rebounded. Major indicators picked up fairly fast and returned to the positive territory. As a result, the economy registered a positive growth in the second quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 56,264.2 billion yuan, up by 2.5% year on year at constant prices. In terms of specific economic indicators, industrial production was steadily recovered and the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 3.9% year on year in June which is 3.2% higher than in May. The service industry production index also increased from -5.1% to 1.3%. The total retail sales of consumer goods bounced back from -6.7% to 3.1% in June demonstrating market sales improvement and fast growth in retail sales of goods for basic living. Exports went up by 22% which is 6.7% higher than the previous month. By ensuring supply and price stability in the market, focusing on grain and energy production, and overcoming the impacts of imported inflation, the consumer price is also generally stable and the employment improved.

第一，中国经济二季度顶住压力实现正增长。今年二季度，受新一轮疫情等超预期因素冲击，中国经济下行压力陡然加大，4月份主要经济指标深度下跌。中国政府果断应对、及时调控，把稳增长放在更加突出的位置，坚持不搞“大水漫灌”，推动原定政策靠前发力，推出和实施稳经济一揽子政策措施。政策效应较快显现，5月主要经济指标跌幅收窄，6月经济企稳回升，主要指标较快反弹、由负转正，带动二季度经济实现正增长。上半年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）562642亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长2.5。就具体经济指标而言：企业复工复产有序推进，6月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.9%，比上月加快3.2个百分点；服务业生产指数也由上月下降5.1%转为增长1.3%。消费市场逐渐回暖，6月份社会消费品零售总额由上月下降6.7%转为增长3.1%；出口增长22%，比上月加快了6.7个百分点。物价形势总体稳定，通过加大市场保供稳价力度，抓好粮食和能源生产，克服输入性通胀影响，保障了国内市场价格总体稳定，就业形势有所好转。

Second, China’s economy is expected to recover gradually and maintain steady growth. The risk of stagflation in the global economy is on the rise these days, thus raising the concerns of instability and uncertainty in China’s economic growth. However, China’s economy has strong resilience and great potentials and the fundamentals sustaining China’s long-term economic growth remain unchanged. With the implementation of a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth, China’s economic performance is expected to gradually improve. First, a major economy like China always has enormous resilience. We should be aware of the considerably large scale of China’s economy and its advantages for having a solid material foundation and a huge domestic market. Second, the potentials of demand recovery are significant. Chinese government is determined to stabilize investment, accelerate the issuance and use of special-purpose bonds, speed up major projects construction, and encourage infrastructure investment. We expect to see further consumption recovery as the offline consumer services are reviving and the government policies to boost consumption are coming into effect. Moreover, China’s foreign trade sustained great resilience. In May, China’s total import and export volume increased by 9.5% year-on-year, 9.4% higher than the previous month; and 14.3% in June, 4.8% higher than that in May. Third, there is a concrete foundation for production to rebound. Following the steady recovery of production, the industrial and supply chains have been gradually smoothed, and the promoting effects of key industries such as automobiles and electronics will further strengthen. And the service industry turned from a decline to an increase in June as the pandemic situation improved. In addition, the promising recovery of transportation industry will also be of great help for the further production boost. Fourth, innovation will provide new momentum for economic growth. Under the pandemic, traditional industries have accelerated their transition and expansion towards digitization and intelligentization, meanwhile new industries continue to develop steadily and rapidly. Fifth, China’s macro economic policies are consistent and precise. The positive effects of policies such as large-scale tax refunds, issuance and use of special-purpose bonds, and increased financial support for the production will emerge, which will contribute to the steady recovery and growth of the economy.

第二，中国经济有望逐步恢复，保持平稳增长。目前全球经济滞胀风险在上升，中国经济发展也面临很多不稳定不确定因素，但是中国经济韧性强、潜力大，长期向好的基本特点没有变。随着一揽子稳增长政策措施落地见效，中国经济运行有望逐步改善。一是，大国经济有韧性。中国经济规模依然可观，长期积累的雄厚物质基础和超大市场规模优势明显。二是，需求恢复有潜力。稳投资力度持续加大，专项债发行和使用加快，重大项目加快推进，基础设施投资提速。线下消费场景渐次复苏，加上促消费政策发力，消费有望继续恢复。中国外贸进出口具有较强韧性。5月份，中国进出口总额同比增长9.5%，比4月份加快9.4个百分点；6月份，进出口同比增长14.3%，比5月份进一步加快了4.8个百分点。三是，生产回升有支撑。随着企业复工复产加快推进，产业链供应链堵点卡点逐步打通，汽车、电子等重点行业带动作用有望进一步增强。随着疫情防控形势趋稳，6月份服务业生产由降转升。物流运输逐步畅通，有助于支撑生产进一步恢复。四是，创新发展增动力。在疫情条件下，传统产业加速向数字化、网络化、智能化方向延伸拓展，新产业新动能继续保持平稳较快增长。五是，宏观政策有保障。下阶段，大规模留抵退税、专项债发行使用、加大金融支持实体经济力度等政策效应会继续显现，有助于推动经济持续回升、向好发展。

Third, China’s economy has been deeply integrated into the global economy, and opening-up is one of China’s fundamental national policies. China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development. Affected by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, the global industrial chain and supply chain are disturbed. As a result, many countries are stuck in multiple crises in terms of food and energy. Rising prices have forced major economies to tighten their economic policies, and pushed the world economy into the substantial risk of stagflation. China, as the largest developing country in the world, has profound developmental potentials and can certainly provide a strong impetus for the global economic recovery. China will deepen high-level opening-up, stay committed to free trade and fair trade, and help keep the two wheels of multilateral and regional trade cooperation running in parallel. Continued efforts will be made to foster a market-oriented, world-class business environment governed by a sound legal framework, and ensure foreign enterprises’ equal access to unlimited sectors in accordance with law in order to realize mutual benefit amid fair competition. China is ready to strengthen international cooperation against COVID-19 and willing to make its COVID control measures more targeted and well-calibrated under the premise of ensuring safety against the pandemic. We will steadily optimize the visa issuance and COVID testing policies and keep resuming and increasing international passenger flights in an orderly manner, and prudently advance overseas commerce and cross-border travel for labor services, so as to better promote personnel exchanges and China’s cooperation with the world.

第三，中国经济深度融入世界，对外开放是中国基本国策。中国的发展离不开世界，世界的发展也需要中国。当前受新冠疫情、乌克兰危机等因素影响，全球产业链供应链紊乱有加剧态势，多国面临粮食和能源等多重危机，物价上涨推动主要经济体政策趋向收紧，世界经济面临较大滞胀风险。中国作为世界最大发展中国家，发展潜力巨大，可以为世界经济复苏提供强劲动力。中国将深化高水平对外开放，坚持自由贸易、公平贸易，推动多边和区域贸易合作两个“轮子”一起转。持续打造市场化、法治化、国际化营商环境，保障外企依法平等进入开放领域，在公平竞争中实现互利共赢。中国愿加强国际抗疫合作，将在确保防疫安全前提下实现更加精准科学防控，持续优化签证、检测等防控政策，进一步有序恢复和增加国际客运航班，稳妥有序推动出境商贸和跨境务工活动，更好促进中外人员往来和对外交流合作。

In the first half of this year, the bilateral trade between China and Iran increased dramatically, consolidating China’s position as the top trading partner of Iran. We are sure that the steady recovery and growth of China’s economy will provide more opportunities for countries around the world including Iran. In the second half of this year, China will hold a number of exhibitions like the 7th China-Eurasia Expo, the 22nd China International Fair of Investment and Trade, the 132nd Canton Fair, and the 5th China International Import Expo which are great chances for Iranian merchants to learn more about China’s market and conduct cooperation with China. China will actively implement the Global Development Initiative and all countries around the world, including Iran, are welcome to benefit from China’s economic development, promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation through greater openness and cooperation in trade, investment and other fields. In this way, we will be able to collectively build a community with a shared future for mankind.

今年上半年，中伊双边贸易额大幅增长，中国继续保持伊朗第一大贸易伙伴地位。中国经济持续稳定恢复、稳中向好，将为包括伊朗在内的世界各国提供更多发展机遇。今年下半年，中国将举办第七届中国-亚欧博览会、第二十二届投洽会、第一百三十二届广交会、第五届进博会等系列经贸展会，将为伊朗各界提供更多了解中国的窗口以及与中国开展经贸合作的机会。中国积极推进全球发展倡议，欢迎世界各国积极利用中国发展红利，通过不断扩大在贸易、投资、产业等各领域的相互开放与合作，推进高质量共建“一带一路”，助力世界经济复苏与发展。